So here at Jacobs Media, we’ve been engaged in the “connected car” space for a few years now. And one of the challenges has been communicating its importance from both a listening and a sales standpoint to the broadcast radio industry.
From national conventions to state broadcaster association conferences to mega-events like “The Radio Show” on the super session stage, we have used research, video, panels, and outside experts to drive home the point that there’s no bigger issue facing radio’s future than the “connected car.”
And the number we’ve chosen to frame the narrative is simply #1. Yes, it’s the loneliest number and it’s the number that everyone aspires to reach. And in radio’s case, it frames the conversation very well.
The car is the #1 listening location for broadcast radio.
And automotive is the #1 revenue category for broadcast radio – for five years running.
But now I’m thinking we’ve been using the wrong number. And maybe Gordon Borrell has it right. In just the past week or so, Gordon has used a very different metric.
HALF
And he has generated a ton of attention with that numerical expression, proportion, or whatever you want to call it.
As you have no doubt read, he has predicted that half of all broadcast radio stations will be gone in a decade thanks to “connected cars.”
And he has also stated that over half of automotive advertising dollars will be spent on digital media this year.
As we know, numbers are in the eye of the beholder. It’s why a TV that sells for $199 is perceptually a better sounding deal than one that retails for $200.
And in this case, half looks and sounds bigger than #1.
If that’s what it takes to gain the attention of the radio industry, then I’m all about adopting half as my new “connected car” mantra. Because this is becoming a big news story, and one that is gaining attention and momentum in a lot of different quarters.
And the concerns about how perceptions of radio’s status may be changing as a result are beginning to show up in all sorts of places. Seth Godin is perhaps the brightest modern marketer on the scene, and he believes in what he experiences. And in his case, the “connected car” was a revelation. You’ll get the drift when you check out his blog with this chilling headline and his gloomy post.
Is this the beginning of the end of radio in cars?
No way.
Does radio need to wake up as an industry and put together a strategic action plan to address its automotive future?
Way.
I think you can classify that as a #1 priority.
Jacobs Media has consistently walked the walk in the digital space, providing insights and guidance through its well-read national Techsurveys.
In 2008, jacapps was launched - a mobile apps company that has designed and built more than 1,300 apps for both the Apple and Android platforms. In 2013, the DASH Conference was created - a mashup of radio and automotive, designed to foster better understanding of the "connected car" and its impact.
Along with providing the creative and intellectual direction for the company, Fred consults many of Jacobs Media's commercial and public radio clients, in addition to media brands looking to thrive in the rapidly changing tech environment.
Fred was inducted into the Radio Hall of Fame in 2018.
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I get that the connected car changes some things. For all of the hand-wringing and doom-predicting, I hear very few people spelling out a solid strategy for radio in the dreaded “connected car.”
The iPod, the CD player, and streaming music have all changed things, and they all have their place in the listeners’ daily habits. None of them has come up with (in my opinion) a product that replaces good, live, local radio. Streaming “radio” just cannot be as relevant to its listeners at this point.
Seth Godin is a smart guy, but I don’t think he understands what makes radio what it is. There are intangible, unquantifiable factors at work. I think radio needs to focus on its strong suit: Being Local, Immediate, Relevant Information and Entertainment.
Big corporate radio has certainly dealt a blow to the quality of Radio, but we can get back to what is truly important any time someone realizes that radio is not Pandora. Sure, we both play music and air commercials, but if Radio ever abandons its core strengths and tried to beat Pandora at Pandora’s (limited) game, then the prophecy will be a self-fulfilled one.
It will be fun to look back in 10 years and see all of these discussions to see if any of us are even close to what will truly have happened by then. 🙂
The good news for prediction-makers is that very few remember the wrong ones!
Your money quote is the part about what radio should be focused on. That’s what go the medium to the dance, and what will greatly contribute to its survival in the car.
Appreciate you taking the time to comment.
Thanks for the scary blog today – was thinking about the BBC while I read it. Being part of the listeners world – and delivering on expectations.
The BBC does that with traffic, and interviews and music. But they’re true to the brand of each channel.
Radio has a role in the connected car – but we need to be honest about who we are and where it’s going.
Jim, you make the great point about the need to reassess radio’s role, and be honest about what we can/cannot do in the current economic/competitive/tech environment.
Sooooo… coming up with an even BETTER variety of more music may not be the pill we all need to take?
I’m thinking not.
A lot of my peers and I still listen to local radio, primarily for information about the area. Of course, we’re way beyond the “golden demographic,” so no one gives a sh*t, even though we’re the ones who are spending big money.
It’s a crazy dichotomy, and one that has been a challenge to stations that target Boomers for more than a decade. There are just certain “givens” in the ad industry that don’t make a lot of sense. And when it comes to providing variety for consumers, radio ends up missing out because it presents very little programming to suit those over 55. Thanks for taking the time, Ira.
Radios baby boomers created that dichotomy back when they were so young that they couldn’t imagine being 55+ and irrelevant. There was a nice easy living to be made selling 25-54 so they paid lipservice to the young and old and now the young they ignored are 25-54 and boomers are old. Age discrimination was invented by boomers and now they are living the results of their own device.
On a micro personal level I hate experiencing it but on a macro level I find it histerical and so well deserved.
Radio has gotten away with much more dumbing down of its product than a lot of people thought it would and maybe that’s led its leaders to believe that the connected car’s impact on radio wioll be much less than many think.
Perhaps its an age thing – that radio’s top echelon is too old for tech to be the integrated into their lives the way it is for their kids and grandkids, so they can’t fathom much less embrace the impact that connected cars will have on their business.
The obivous answer is for radio to devolop, perfect and offer a suite of products that are better than what the other dashboard icons do (for now, Pandora, Spotify, Sirius XM but there will be others) yet there seems to be no movement toward anything like that.
I predict that the tipping point is 5 years from now. By 2019, radio will have lost half of its revenue (from a peak in the low 20 billions) and almost that much TSL. There will be virtually no live programming other than syndication and for the first time, weekly cume will be noticably down.
No Ebineezer, you’re not already dead and you won’t die – you’ll just be a smaller, less significant version of what you are now.
Someone talking about the post on Facebook noted that it would be interesting to revisit all these predictions in 5 or 10 years. Actually, what I’ve found is that no one remembers the incorrect predictions, and the people who actually guessed right never let you forget it.
Of course, Bob, you, Gordon Borrell, and Seth Godin (the three wise men?) may be right. I am hoping that we can draw enough attention to these challenges that it spurs some serious strategic action before “connected cars” reach that tipping point. We shall see.
Tv was supposed to kill radio.
Music Videos were supposed to kill radio.
XM Satellite was supposed to kill radio.
Internet was supposed to kill radio.
Online streaming was supposed to kill radio.
Youtube was supposed to kill radio.
Streaming apps were supposed to kill radio.
Now the Digital dashboard using streaming apps or our phone is going to kill radio.
mean while, Taylor Swift and Irving Azoff are in huge public battles with streaming companies (which is only the beginning) but is a great thing for radio because all the while they publicly fight over dollars and keep their music from the public via these streams, quietly radio is still going, playing all those artists being pulled from online.
🙂
~jeff
Jeff, radio most definitely has staying power. And history proves that it has managed to adapt, morph, and innovate its way out of difficult challenges in the past. You’re right that much of the squabbling occurring on the music side of the street, along with the confusion it creates for consumers, has benefits (short-term?) for a simple medium that is everywhere, easy to use, and part of many people’s habits. but as Jim Harper reminds us in his comment, radio can’t just put it on cruise control. In fact, it requires an entirely different mindset to figure out how to do our next act. Thanks for taking the time to comment.
Upon retiring after a 40 year-plus career from the greatest business in the history of the planet, I can tell you that it’s very different out here in the Real World. As a “civilian”, getting up every day and getting ready, being in the car during drive-times, being in a workplace where I choose the entertainment (if any) and relaxing at home at night all put radio in different perspectives after being a PD and MorningMan most of my life.
Our present culture is totally driven by an individual’s personal desires. We civilians don’t choose our entertainment as part of a group, we choose it as a “individual god”. We can get anything we want in 2 seconds on the web, in 3 seconds on a TV, or instantly on our phones/dashboard. This includes every song ever recorded, news from around the world (and space), Things radio used to do best are now done better by a live-map on the dash and a digital display of every weather detail you could desire. If you want a civilian to listen to what you have to say, you are now competing with their personal voice-messages/mail. And then there’s the biggest radio killer of all time: The Phone. Programmers rarely talk about the sea-change that occurred when door-to-door/mobile phone conversations became possible. Probably because we were on the phone and didn’t notice other drivers. How can you persuade an American in the middle of the “cult of me” to listen to the radio?
Compelling Content.Which means Great Music and Great on-air Talent.
“Music-Radio” came to power in the 60s when it was the BEST way of hearing the music you liked, and that included music that was new. Part of it was entertaining yourself, the other part was making sure you fit in with your peers by being aware of the coolest new songs/artists. Even Drake Top 40s had a news-team and did hourly newscasts because radio was one of the ways you could be informed. But every 20/20 newscast was compelling content. And by the way, you had to pull your car over and get out if you wanted to talk to someone on the phone.
Now, radio is LAST in the food chain of music outlets. Everyone with a smart-phone has a personal playlist of their favorite songs that is 5x bigger than most stations. And guess what? They don’t have “powers” and “secondaries” on their playlists. Just the songs they like at the moment. And many of them, which are “new songs”, they found somewhere besides the radio. As a “god” with the web-universe at their command, they can change the rotation with their voice. The results of an auditorium music test (familiar/unfamiliar/likes/dislike etc) would seem insane to a civilian. They won’t be moved by what it appears “the group” would tolerate. They don’t have to…they are a “god”.
My point (I’m getting there) is that in order to appeal to a listener with so much power at their fingertips, you have to be BETTER than playing songs that are the safest. You have to be BETTER than keeping your jox down to 45 seconds, for the sake of PPM. You have to be better at entertaining them THAN THEY THEMSELVES ARE.
This means putting creative people to work in our business. For more than 20 years, the craziest, most out-of-control, psychopaths were programming radio in the late 60s-mid 80s. They would NEVER keep a job in the real world, but were protected by managers and owners for years because of their music and programming genius. It didn’t come from stats or studies. It came from inside their minds. They had double digits in the ratings and could get a job anywhere. All their sins against civilization were perpetually forgiven because the had a gift and they could deliver. If they were successful, your biggest problem was keeping your competitor from hiring them away. If they were not, they would fade away. They were hard to work for and even harder to keep out of jail, but they were “gods”. They knew how to give listeners something they couldn’t give to themselves. Compelling Content via music and talent. If radio is to thrive again, it has to put the creative people back in a position of authority and stand back. This will require a major change in the way management and owners deal with programmers/music directors/promotion people and talent. It will require you to hire a woman or man based on THEIR talent as a programmer or performer, and not as someone who can follow the liners and work Twitter and Facebook. Some will succeed, more will fail. But if you can trust in the talent of the people in radio, REAL trust in their talent, you will actually be competing with all forms of digital competition on their turf: Giving people something they can’t give themselves.
Radio will never die from outside competition. Like a God it can only be defeated by itself.
-Jim Harper
Morning Man/PD
Retired
It’s interesting that some time away from the daily fray can bring so much perspective – even after four decades of day to day radio. This is an amazing point of view, Jim, and I’m glad you shared it with the class. I’m looking forward to hearing from others – included ex-pats from behind the mic – who are experiencing our business in different ways. Like listening to former baseball players talk about “today’s game,” it’s a great perspective that needs to be heard. We miss you, and appreciate you taking the time to weigh in.
Thanks Fred,
I only offer my opinions to help. Now I’m like the former IRS agent who now works for a tax prep service. Think of it as a “message from the other side”. My only regret in my career is that I didn’t spend more time understanding “The Real Outside World’.Remember the old PD-trick of making your morning man pre-tape a show so they could spend the morning in a car in rush hour traffic and experience what it’s like to hear the show they are doing? Turns out that was a pretty brilliant exercise.
One last note: No “civilian” ever made any plans for the day based on a morning show promo that asked them to listen tomorrow morning at 7:20.Radio is the only Medium that does that.It’s an insane waste of talk and expectations.
Much appreciated, Jim. The perspective is great (just don’t become an IRS agent!).
Jim, thanks for sharing your cogent perspective.
My background is in theatre and writing. I somehow got it in my head that being a good writer and performer would be valuable on the radio. (Sarcasm aside, it has been!)
So I try to approach everything as the “rest” of the entertainment industry approaches it. Stuff that was working before Marconi was born. Stuff that is still making things like The Daily Show or The Onion work.
Radio… for reasons I have never figured out… believes it is “different.” I have shared tools and techniques I learned while training at The Second City… only to have PD after PD say… “yeah… that’s all well and good – – but, this is different.”
Is is?
Your “7:20” example is right on the mark. When I interact with people out in the “real world” (other forms of media and entertainment) and tell them about things like that – – I just get a blank “why would that ever be a thing” stare.
Why, indeed…
But, like Mr Jacobs, I believe it is still a magical medium, and it can have the power of a battleship for advertisers and listeners.
To only use it like a cap gun is rather odd to me. Rather odd.
It IS the greatest business on the planet. But… tick tock… we can’t wait. We shouldn’t wait.
Johnny, thanks for this comment and for keeping this dialogue going. Appreciate you reading the blog and contributing.
I forgot that old trick – something that I am most definitely going to dust off and use. Thanks, Jim.
I leased a new vehicle and had the trial period for Sirius XM activated. Enjoyed it until it ran out. Cancelled. No regrets. As far as streaming goes, you have to pay for data at an exorbitant rate if you are talking about an Internet source, and you have to be near enough to the towers to keep you on line. You have to pay for satellite, too, if that is your choice.
In many cases “Free”, even with ads, wins out. Many of us travel in circles where everyone we know has a good job and can afford to pay for service that many millions of folks cannot afford or do not want. They still drive and listen to radio… and they still buy stuff that is advertised on radio. In many rural areas a landline and broadcast radio still seem pretty essential.
Bob, there are a lot of people like you – and the ones you describe. But there are also a lot of people who are finding a myriad of alternatives on their laptops, phones, tablets, and now dashboards. Thanks for taking the time to comment and for reading our blog.