Did you notice something a bit different during the waning days of 2022?
My sense is there was less predicting going on in the media – and even in our cloistered world of broadcast radio. In years past, it used to be quaint, entertaining, and even fun to try to foretell what would transpire in the new year. Famous “seers” like Jeane Dixon were asked to look into their crystal balls to predict the future – in world and international news, in sports, and in the celebrity community.
Somehow, political polarization, regular shootings, a global pandemic, economic uncertainty, and one climate disaster after another doesn’t make prognosticating the future a lighthearted affair. In fact, it’s downright precarious to go on the record to forecast the future because it’s been so…unpredictable.
And so it seems in broadcast radio. Maybe I missed an email or two, but I don’t recall our trade publications soliciting “industry experts” to put on their swami turbans to make their calls about what’s in store for Radioville in 2023. From time to time, I’ve been one of those so-called “gurus,” along with folks like Mike McVay, Lori Lewis, Pierre Bouvard, and especially futurist James Cridland. Fortunately, no one went back to determine whether any of us ever got anything right!
But not this year. No one wants to touch the future. It could be toxic. Or shocking. And certainly, difficult to see around the dark corners of our crazy world, not to mention what may or may not transpire over the next 12 months in radio.
So to kick off this new year and an odd vacation day for most of us, let’s try something a little different. Instead of asking the “usual suspects” for their
prognostications about radio, media, and content creation, I’m asking YOU.
What will be trending in the new year in radio? Who will emerge as the big players in the next 12 months? Will the FCC once again be a player? Will there be sales, mergers, and other business news?
Use the space below labeled “comments,” or head to my social pages on Facebook, LinkedIn, or (gasp!) Twitter to leave your best look behind the curtain. The best, most accurate prediction will receive a brand new “Magic 8-Ball,” a gift you may get a lot of use out of in 2023.
Two requests:
- Please leave the anger, the politics, and personal attacks at the door. Please don’t put me in the position of playing Elon Musk, and having to delete comments.
- Have the courage of your convictions: and use your real name.
It will be interesting to see how you do, because unlike some other publishers, I’m going to hold onto your predictions and look back on them in late 2023.
Were you right? Were you wrong? Were you bold? Did you play it safe?
And of course, to truly get a glimpse of “what’s next?” Paul and I fly to Vegas tomorrow morning for our annual journey to CES. This year’s conference promises to be a bounce-back event, with well more than 100,000 attendees. Many of this year’s exhibitors are first-timers to CES, so we’ll have a lot of “future” to see, hear, and experience.
Look for our reports, commentary, and observations in Inside Radio, starting tomorrrow.
And meantime, good luck with your prognosticating.
Please leave comments below or on Facebook, Twitter, or LinkedIn.
Jacobs Media has consistently walked the walk in the digital space, providing insights and guidance through its well-read national Techsurveys.
In 2008, jacapps was launched - a mobile apps company that has designed and built more than 1,300 apps for both the Apple and Android platforms. In 2013, the DASH Conference was created - a mashup of radio and automotive, designed to foster better understanding of the "connected car" and its impact.
Along with providing the creative and intellectual direction for the company, Fred consults many of Jacobs Media's commercial and public radio clients, in addition to media brands looking to thrive in the rapidly changing tech environment.
Fred was inducted into the Radio Hall of Fame in 2018.
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I think local radio will be thriving, as it was in 2022. Hopefully, the big players in corporate radio will realize they need to return to the basics. That’s what we’ve done and it works. Build on a station’s identity with compelling content and local jocks that know the city. The days of plug-and-play radio are over. Furthermore, focus on RADIO – not podcasts and other verticals. Let them be what they are. Your radio station should be the headliner…not the warm-up act.
* Automotive will embrace the best sound around.
* Local Personalities will flourish, again.
* Sales will help enhance local connection.
All of the above will be created by licensed broadcast stations.
Hello from Radio future!
By the end of 2023 there will be at least 3 more stations with the Hot Talk format like KXTE in Las Vegas. Proving that people want personality over music intensive shows. There will be more syndication and less local personalities but the syndicated personalities will be shows instead of individuals. With afternoon and midday shows becoming popular.
Podcasting will level out as far as growth and radio station websites will become a thing of the past.
See ya in 2024!
There will be a focus on educating, recruiting, and developing talent. Not just on air talent but in every aspect of the industry, including sales and engineering. This focus on attracting young people will require a synergy created by all broadcasters. The future of our business will continue to see us thrive as a free, ubiquitous, compelling audio content provider.
I agree that stations and companies still embracing and producing good local radio will continue to do well. That, having been said, a few thoughts to ponder:
It is time for the some of the big companies to realize if they can’t keep their stations on the air, it’s either time to spend some money on engineering help, or sell the stations. We have one in this market that seems sometimes to be silent more often than you hear modulation on it. One time last year, it was “silent” (transmitter on, but no programming heard) from about 1 Saturday afternoon until the first employee arrived Monday morning at 8:15. No legal ID’s. No nothing. Another station, an iHeart spin off, for quite a while ID’d as a Toledo station. Took them quite a while to figure out that they had to ID the station in town and now do a “multi station ID” along their network. Nobody listens to it here and it gets not even a -0.1 in the book, but it’s on the air. The shortage of available engineering help is a major problem for radio.
Overall, it’s time for the industry to make a priority to finding people who can be molded into personalities, where ever they can be found. That means young people who WANT not to just read a card, but want to be the next Joe Rogan. Stand up comics might be good, too. Give a good prospect good coaching and, give them the ability to take measured and reasoned risks on the air and give them the room to occasionally, fail. Take a flanker you’re doing nothing but satellite with (or just trying to be the #3 country station with), and let some younger students program their ideas on the air with a pro to oversee it. Here in my town, that is how a commercial college station became a moneymaker in the early 70’s doing progressive rock.
Sadly, I predict more AM’s will fail and more AM licenses will be turned in. The “senior band” is in trouble. (Oh yes, owners…one reason this is the case is that the lack of engineering and upgrading of many of these facilities has been ignored for FAR…TOO…LONG.) Some of these stations still have potential life, maybe paring it with a translator. But fix the darn things, get new processors and tune them for God’s sakes and give them a better chance. They can’t ALL be conservative talk stations airing “B” and “C” grade talk shows, or airing “Sportstalk” in cities without pro sports.
Talk radio – needs to be far more entertaining than it has become.
Hire enough people to cover for and deal with emergency situations in your town. Taking the attitude that “There’s already a station doing news” and accepting the fact that your station is running 2 day old weather forecasts is NOT acceptable.
Care about your programming. Reduce the spot loads and find a way to bring the rates UP. Sell VALUE rather than just NUMBERS.
I am in my final years now…into year 49 full time in radio. I have had experiences that were good, bad, and outright fantastic…and I never got to so called “major markets” or certain legendary stations. By the time I had enough experience, they were gone. Am I a talent on the level of Robert W. Morgan, Larry Lujack and The Real Don Steele? No. But, to have survived this long, I must at least be decent. I’ve spent almost 20 years working for my present employer.
It’s been a wonderful ride. What I don’t want to see is having to quote Lee DeForest in a few years asking the industry, “What have you done to my child?”
I may not be major market talent. But, I care deeply about the future of this business. I’ll never totally walk away from it, either. But I care deeply about making “good radio”. And I work long hours, sometimes extraordinarily long hours to try and make it happen.
Let’s fix all the problems and show the world what good radio can do.
I think there is too little companies owning stations now in 2023. In towns one major Broadcast company owns say for instance all the cities country stations. There is no competition, sounding canned, no local input to speak of. What happened for the FCC to allow this. I have been out of Radio since 1984 as a Radio Announcer. Tired of hearing 10 min of commercial blocks or no commercials(radio in me still).If i wanted radio to be like elevator music(remember that) I would sit in an elevator.What;s with the Dj’s stopping the music and talking about Taylor Swift for 10 min. or longer, laughing, like they did in elementary class. Just sayin.Give me LIVE Radio……Ken Betts
Radio needs to work on marketing solutions. Be aggressive with TV, Billboards and other traditional means to reach people that don’t know that you exist. Marketing the brand through social media seems like is not working for Radio. Young people refer to the word Radio as something old. I think people, of all ages, needs the connection to Air Personalities in some way to engage and make it part of their lives again. This can happen with the return of live DJs and leaving behind the less talk culture (people like to be part of, Music? I can find it on different sources for free), local community service, well prepared sales and promotions teams. You can’t pretend to be listened and rentable around the globe if you’re not doing it in your local market. I know all I mentioned cost money but will extend the life of some Radio stations that won’t be here by the end of the year.
2023 Fact: Local business owners will more aggressively evaluate their radio spend side by side with Facebook/ Digital Media in one critical area: conversion. E.G.” I spent $1200 a month on your Radio ads and morning show contest and you gave away 30 pizzas on air per month, but on average monthly only 8 certificates were redeemed at the point of sale, and only 1 used the certificate to sign up on line. I’m getting over 50% conversion on my FB investment and the CPC is under $1.00. I need to spend my money where I’m getting the best results. “
The way Radio fulfills a marketing promotion with performance reporting is just about as effective as bringing a knife to a gunfight.
Our USP is that daily we have achieved audience participation IRL in real life, but are losing the battle to data in URL. The surveillance society makes it so easy to provide a list of customers from URL touches. Where is the Radio customer list? No list = no conversion data.
“Marketing has two equally important jobs, satisfy existing demand, and create future demand.” from a study by Pierre Bouvard
Building on Kevin Fodor’s comment, I see “localism” expanding to a point where the owners themselves are local. A couple of years ago, WABC in New York was bought by a guy who can all but look out his door and see the tower lights.
It won’t be widespread, but there will be someone somewhere that will turn on the radio one day and be fed up with what he or she is (not) hearing. When they say, “Man, I wish I owned this station”, that’s the day redemption begins.
Looking at the media overall, 2023 will be the year when the phrase “only the strong survive” is put to the test. Large media companies have spent a lot of money on building out streaming services, but only a few of them will be around in their current form at the end of the year. Cable owners will see the demand for their traditional linear product waning, and they will try to figure out a profitable way to deliver content, such as streaming video, on-demand video/audio content, or perhaps something we don’t even know about yet. Ohh, and then there’s radio.
Radio has been shrinking, at least valuation-wise, for some time, and 2023 will likely be the year that Wall Street people declare that radio is not a good investment. Cash flow will be lower than it has been, and “old media” like radio and newspapers will become incredibly unsexy to people with boatloads of money to invest. Not the local businesses who have to advertise on local radio, but the Wall Street people who invest in big radio companies and decide, sometimes arbitrarily, what these companies are worth.
At least one of the top five broadcast companies will be forced into bankruptcy reorganization. Nielsen will be much less vigilant in how they measure radio and report on the medium’s strengths or weaknesses, making advertisers think twice about buying national/network radio if they can buy streaming and other kinds of services that will give them rich usage and demographic data.
It’s not the end of the world. Still, it’s a scenario that few broadcast companies and local station management
are prepared to embrace and handle, as so many radio owners and managers have a highly inflated sense of what the radio business is worth.
Christian radio explodes all over the country especially southern gospel. At least that’s my plan for The Gospel Station
I’d like to see less of a reliance on voicetracking and syndication. The best radio is Live, Local radio, where you can bump into your favorite air talent at the grocery store or gas station. Forcing a syndicated show based out of NYC on a #79 size market is not the way. Until executives figure this out or finally leave the industry, maybe the business will have a chance for survival in the next 5-10 years. Until then, I am happy to say there are plenty of other options.
I totally agree. Live and local is the answer for saving the industry. As an independent in Southern Ontario, I’m pushing like crazy for less voice tracks and more live and local personality radio! The big players aren’t going to do it, someone has to take the lead.
Admittedly, these are more hopes than predictions, but here goes…
First, someone in the U.S. takes another stab at either “pure” EDM or, at least, EDM-heavy Dance–even in a niche or flanker environment. There are several examples (especially in western Europe) where the format still appears to do well.
Second, some broadcasters start beefing up the music-related offerings on their sites–with some combination of additional sidechannels, robust recently played listings, official song previews/samples, upvoting/downvoting (or, at least, liking/favoriting), charts/countdowns, and lyric displays. I can’t stress enough just how much a lot of those functions have helped me personally with music discovery (especially with older songs).
Finally, yes, it’s perhaps too much of a bright, shiny object right now, but I do think that there’s a place for at least some stations/brands (especially heritage ones) to have some sort of a metaverse-related presence–not counting what iHeart has started doing at the corporate level. There are probably plenty of other examples already, but the main one that I’m familiar with is what Portugal’s RFM launched a few weeks ago: https://rfm.sapo.pt/content/14359/rfm-abre-o-seu-espaco-no-metaverso-com-casa-cheia.
I LOVE the overall hopefulness of the previous comments. But, alas, I “see” no reason to expect anything but more of the same, especially in a challenging economic cycle like what is expected in 2023. Even “live and local” non big box owners continue to see attrition in PUR. Hopeful that the trend will be to cut spotset lengths, increase personality and “market” from the mountaintops…(!)
Local or die. Stations that persist in leaning heavily on network content in the age of online content expansion will find themselves redundant when it comes to media buys. A local radio star can be a more convincing endorser for a product or company than a national spokesperson (look how it works for podcasting!)
Local talent will need to be developed and trained, to attract and retain listeners and sponsors. Which means managers will have to stop disparaging colleges and technical schools that train that talent and learn to work with them, through internships and part-time opportunities. Those students need to have skills in board operations, mic techniques and editing PRIOR to doing an internship. Those internship opportunities will need to be more than having students and interns just “haul stuff to promotions.” Interns should be allowed to cut and/or produce spots or PSAs, sit in on a morning show, edit and post video for social media, cover local news events. In short, the intern needs to get something out of the experience – which means the station will eventually get more than just short-term free labor from the intern. They’ll have a ready-to-go part-timer who knows their systems and their city waiting in the wings.
Companies will need to get onboard with websites and podcasting and localize them. That means yes, you will need to give precious passwords to your air and promotions staff to they can keep those sites current. Having to run content through a national cortex or a promotions or digital director is not efficient or effective when it comes to staying on top of local information. Having a site that just posts national content that listeners can get ANYWHERE will not make your sites “must see.”
I remember attending a Morning Show Bootcamp and hearing the late Kidd Kraddick on a panel pointing out that any national show will have national content and a team that will make it sound slick. But your local content is what makes your station relevant to your local audience. You just have to make sure it’s relevant content and presented well. That’s where you need trained talent. And by the way, that talent includes managers, as well as marketing, promotions and on-air. Managers who come up through the ranks in their home city get what makes that city tick…as long as they continuously stay connected to that community.
I also see relevant stations becoming the “filter” to the endless stream of content assaulting media consumers on their phones and feeds. But that requires a lot of trust on the part of the consumer: to let the station provide them with information that they need, information that interests and affects them. Successful stations will live up to that trust.
I see more use of technology and air talent to create a local sound with fewer people. I see consolidation of sales forces and more use of Gen Z employees who have great ideas. I see smaller Class As with less cost making waves over Class C’s with high cost. Medium to small markets have a better chance s higher profit margins. Markets 150 and above large companies will eliminate studios and operate from transmitter sites with content sent from broadcast hubs feeding more stations. Streams are important for small stations, Facebook important for communication but web pages are useless. Twitter and Instagram can be helpful but you need someone to work them. TSL is way less but people listen but for less time. You must be good and better . Use technology. In medium markets on down you will see more stations economizing with studios located in garages and basements like the 70s. Nobody cares . Economy is more important. Sales staffs are getting younger working from home with zoom. Think economy market 100 and down. You will see market 100 and down Class As C3s with innovative programming getting huge shares so make your stream sound great. Stream 256 not 64. People don’t listen to the radio anymore they listen to station they like and at work or home they listen to the stream. Radio us no longer the king, we are part of the media lsndscape. We can still have a decent share if we program like it’s 2023 not 1984. Reduce spot lengths and loads. Reduce clutter, more local, less clutter, more songs in a row, simple imaging, don’t talk over the music, use technology. The major formats, Talk, Country in many forms , CCM and Religion in any form. Classic Hits and Classic Rock are still contenders especially heritage stations like K-SHE 95 and K-Earth and K-BIG.
I have two.
1) The number of podcasts will double, while the number of profitable entities producing/distributing them will be cut in half. (again).
2) Someone will form a selling channel, rep-firm, or entity to cohesively and unconfusingly (I know that’s not a word) sell underwriting (ad) inventory into public television programs.
I predict…more of the same.
1–Continued 7-10 minute spot breaks as the emphasis on debt reduction remains.
2–More longtime personalities exiting due to further bottom-line dictates.
3–More audience erosion to streaming music/podcast services because of #1 & #2.
Lots of exciting and promising ideas here and of course many dismal observations. A couple of ideas. observations to add:
—- Over-the-air transmitters are a fading reality. How many radios (outside of your car) do you see around the house? Not just your home but consider your kids or younger friends? Making our apps into the new ‘radios’ is a necessity. . Yes, the big 3 have tried to make big national apps but the real opportunity is to take local brands and build those apps. Make them filled with innovations and options and revenue.
— Build on-air personalities. Enough with liner cards and positioning statements. We also need to do a way better job of watching the store. Yesterday’s weather, dead air, out-of-date spots, no one home in emergencies. Embrace your community – show up at the events, help in times of need, and be the ring leader for your market.
— Lead the audience in music. While research is great information it is also a closed loop. We only see what we have fed the audience. If we don’t play artist “X” they are very unlikely to test familiar and with high scores. We have to balance taking risks and reaching out to lead the audience into fresh music (both old and new titles). Also, we have not really seen any ‘new formats’ in many decades (maybe the Jack stations?). There are options that we have not built on – Americana, Red Dirt Country, Pop/Country hybrids, a commercial version of NPR AAA with a wider range, and more music curation. I’m sure there are many more new formats out there. Time to start creating and fade away from doing the same library over and over hoping with some spiffy brand names and sweepers it will last.
I believe that there will be a hunger for the return of “original” radio with current technology. This hunger will be prevalent with the one generation that has always been ignored by programmers. It’s the ones who grew up with radio and remember what it used to sound like. They remember the “magic” and they remember the personalities that they fell in love with.
In their zeal to capture the ears of the 18-27 year olds, like they have forever, owners and programmers have failed to face the reality, that this “lost” generation of listeners abandoned terrestrial radio and no longer cares what format the station switches to. They are gone forever from terrestrial radio.
There are now 40 million Baby Boomers in America and over 10 million in Canada. The greatest amount of dispensable wealth lies within this generation. This could be radio’s “New Frontier” Re-introduce them to programs and hosts that actually have something to say about the music and their lives. Eliminate the 30/60 sec commercials and you will have them for life.
This year will be a “wake up” call for all radio traditionalists. When you point out a radio to a ten year old in a museum, he’ll ask you what’s that? And you say that’s a radio, , and he/she says “What’s a Radio?. That’s the wake up call and the giant elephant in the room called “reality”. The truth is from this point on, there will no longer be the need for a radio tower, unless you need it for emergency broadcasts or AM Radio traffic reports..
The smartphone is the new radio and the “old” transistor we grew up with. By the time that little ten year old grows up to be a teenager, that little transistor smartphone will have already been designed to listen to all forms of audio and all forms of video with voice commands.
This year will mark the unprecedented growth of the digital universe, and you’ll either be driving your own car on that digital highway, or you’ll be a passenger with one of the big conglomerates. . Those will be the only two choices. The third choice is to continue to do the same things you are doing with the same approach, and finish the year with no car, and a for sale sign.
So what will 2023 look like? It’ll be the year of “radio enlightenment”. When the industry will wake up to a new reality, a reality that will change the way we listen to radio forever, and it will see the birth of a new kind of radio that no longer requires a bricks and mortar building, equipment, or a tower. It will be the start of a new era in the delivery of the sounds of radio. That new radio station will be “in the cloud” , and will not require an address.
Welcome to 2023 , and the birth of “ALL PODCAST RADIO”
Agree with so many of the previous comments about long spot breaks, lack of local talent, need to return to community involvement and more. BUT, when calling on your car dealers, inspect their new models, especially the EV’s. Most do not or will not have an AM button/tuner IF, (and this is big) IF they even have a radio option! We’ve watched radio give up and give in to Podcasts just as newspapers screwed-the-pooch with that new-fangled thing called the internet and TV viewership is dismal thanks to the embrace of streaming. Do everything you can to keep our stations relevant to the communities we are supposed to serve!
Gary, a disturbing trend for sure. We have been on this bandwagon for 15+ years now. We’re reaching that moment when the rubber hits the road (excuse the pun).