Earlier this week, my email box blew up with notifications from friends and clients about a new research study about the Classic Rock format. But this one wasn’t put together by an analyst like Philippe Generali, Charlie Sislen, Nielsen, Mediabase, or one of the radio trade publications.
It came from FiveThirtyEight.com and it sure got my attention.
If you follow politics closely, you probably know all about 538 (named after the number of electors in the U.S. electoral college). Founder Nate Silver is a baseball fan and stats geek, and created this blog which seeks to predict election outcomes using statistical models and algorithms. Originally, Silver’s blog was part of The New York Times, but a year ago, ESPN moved in and bought the FiveThirtyEight brand.
The site/blog is not just about politics. In recent weeks, they’ve analyzed everything from the Republicans’ convention city choice to an analysis of where LeBron James will play basketball next year (the answers may end up being the same).
So when I read this amazingly thorough analysis of the Classic Rock format – how it works, how it differs geographically, and how it’s put together – from a credible analytics outfit like 538, it got my attention. This is like Warren Buffett doing a free analysis of your company. You’d better be taking notes.
The analyst/writer for “Why Classic Rock Isn’t What It Used To Be” (don’t let the headline throw you) is Walter Hickey. Here are a few of his key takeaways about the Classic Rock format:
- Classic Rock varies greatly by geographic region (and there’s a nifty map included in the analysis).
- 1973 is the biggest year for national Classic Rock airplay (based on the 25 stations monitored).
- And 1973-82 is the biggest 10-year span for the format (accounting for 57% overall).
- It’s a core format – the top 25 most-played artists comprise nearly half of all airplay.
- Every Classic Rock station has its own unique character.
But maybe the most interesting thing about 538’s analysis of Classic Rock is that Walt Hickey – if Mott the Hoople will excuse me – is a young dude. He grew up in the New York City area in the ‘90s. Like a lot of younger people who discovered Classic Rock from the ‘60s, ‘70s, and ‘80s, he has a true appreciation and passion for the music.
During his research, Walt learned that DJs no longer have a whole lot of say in what gets played, but that extensive consumer research is a major determinant of how Classic Rock radio sounds throughout the country.
I caught up with Walt this week who was kind enough to let me ask him about Classic Rock and his analysis for FiveThirtyEight.com.
FJ: Why focus on Classic Rock? There are many successful formats in radio, so why did you choose this one?
WH: Classic Rock was always particularly interesting to me as a format. I had listened to it whenever I was in a car since high school, and I always really enjoyed the diversity of sound on there. It was also appealing because pretty much everything on the station was the best work of an artist — with such a wider selection of material to choose from, all the work that made it on was great — and I grew up outside of New York City, so WAXQ was just a great station. And the format also presented such a great opportunity to talk about the problem of how people sort music into genre.
FJ: What was the one thing that surprised you most about your analysis?
WH: I would say it’s either the level of DJ involvement on the day-to-day operations of the play list – that is to say, almost none – or the sophisticated data collection and analysis that was done for terrestrial stations. I kind of figured – wrongly – that terrestrial radio would be somewhat antiquated when it came to how they picked songs, at least compared to how digital native radio handled it. So I was surprised to find that there’s a ton of algorithms and analysis done for over the air radio.
FJ: Have you read the comments (that accompanied the analysis)? Any comments on them?
WH: I’ve mostly stuck to Twitter and I’ve been really encouraged by the response there. This seems to strike a chord for a lot of people, as Classic Rock is often “the music I grew up with” and is all kinds of tied up emotions for people? Either way, the response was really enthusiastic, which is always what you want to see when you empty the tank on something.
FJ: How do you attribute the staying power of this music?
WH: So it’s a combination of those two things I mentioned earlier – the emotional relationship that people have with the sounds of their formative years, and the fact that Classic Rock is such a wide potential field – that the stuff you hear is really the best of the very best.
FJ: Who is Walter Hickey’s favorite Classic Rock band? And favorite album?
WH: My favorite Classic Rock artist is definitely Bruce Springsteen. Favorite album — and I hate to go for low hanging fruit here, but I listened to it nonstop for a couple years there in high school — is Dark Side of the Moon.
In sending this report out to Jacobs Media clients earlier in the week, I noted that 538 chose Classic Rock for a reason. The format – and of course the music that powers it – is iconic and special. In what other formats do people in their 20s and 30s enjoy music that came out decades before they were born?
The format endures and thrives within an even more crowded radio dial today and in a media environment that has only become more congested with pure-plays, satellite radio, and other resources. We appreciate FiveThirtyEight taking note of its success.
And it’s noteworthy they didn’t choose Jack-FM or Hot AC as an important format to analyze. Classic Rock has a lot of buzz. While Walt hasn’t spent much time with the comments that follow his analysis, they are fascinating for all the reasons you can imagine. We’d also love your comments – especially from you radio professionals – about Walt’s analysis as well as your own views of “Why Classic Rock?” Go ahead and leave them below.
P.S. The first person who informed me about this article was Sheila Sorvari, who some may remember as a wonderful on-air personality (music and talk) at WRIF back in the ‘70s using her air name Sheila Rushlo. Sheila also reminded me that 10 of the top 25 most played songs on the 538 list were released during the three years she entertained Detroiters at RIFF.
Jacobs Media has consistently walked the walk in the digital space, providing insights and guidance through its well-read national Techsurveys.
In 2008, jacapps was launched - a mobile apps company that has designed and built more than 1,300 apps for both the Apple and Android platforms. In 2013, the DASH Conference was created - a mashup of radio and automotive, designed to foster better understanding of the "connected car" and its impact.
Along with providing the creative and intellectual direction for the company, Fred consults many of Jacobs Media's commercial and public radio clients, in addition to media brands looking to thrive in the rapidly changing tech environment.
Fred was inducted into the Radio Hall of Fame in 2018.
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People in their 20s and 30s just knowing about, much less liking or loving music from 40+ years ago is flat out nuts…in a good way. Imagine that its 1973 and some 20 year old college student or 35 year old banker is ranting with his Dad about his favorite Rudy Vallee 78. If you do the math, that’s what this comparison is like.
Why does classic rock endure? Guitar based music is still very much relevant and classic rock pretty much established the standard for guitar based rock. Even the Genx/Y folks that don’t care for classic rock probably do like music that’s derivative of it. That’s a first – nothing on the charts in 1973 owed anything to Kay Kaiser or Benny Goodman. It also attracted some unbelievably creative and talented musicians/artists. What other genre has been populated by people with Clapton, Hendrix, Van Halen, Jagger, Lennon/McCartney, Springsteen (there are plenty more) kind of talent. So many took songwriting, musicianship and performance to a previously unheard of level. Little of the most popular music since has had that kind of staying power and influence.
Lets not forget that even mainstream rock was re-energized as a format when it started scaling back the currents/recurrents in the 80s in favor of what’s now considered classic rock. And those were the days when there was plenty of great new rock (now also considered classic rock) from artists like the Police, Van Halen, Guns and Roses, AC/DC, Tom Petty, Bon Jovi, Mellencamp, Aerosmith and Springsteen.
Lastly, the era when classic rock really made its mark was probably when rock music’s radio stage was at its best. Stations like WBCN, WMMR, WEBN, KBCO, WMMS, WNOR, KSHE, WLUP, DC101 WCMF and others were at the top of their respective games, unique, local and loaded with cool stuff between the records and off the air. That made the whole package easy to embrace and if you were a guy who could hear one of those stations it was much harder to be cool if you didn’t listen and talk about it. I’m a radio geek, but I was always blown away about how unique and special some of those rock radio legends were when I got the chance to hear them.
Maybe its just great f-ing music 🙂
Your last line is the truth.
I spent years doing focus groups, reviewing research, and thinking about the power of this music. Why is its value so long-lasting, spanning generations? Why do fans who grew up with this music insist it was the greatest music every made.
I posited that it had to do with the size of the Baby Boomer generation, which would explain some of the ratings success. But it kept coming back to the music itself. People will be listening to the Beatles, Stones, Led Zeppelin, and the Who 100 years from now.
Thanks for putting a point on the conversation, Bob.
Interesting – and unfortunate, in my opinion – that a format rooted in emotion (as pointed out in the article) is now programmed entirely on the basis of cold, hard research. A spreadsheet doesn’t know what day of the week it is, whether it’s sunny or rainy, blistering hot or freezing cold, or if the community the station is serving has just celebrated a milestone or suffered a tragedy. Conversely, announcers seasoned in the format and plugged into their market’s mindset can tap in to their own acumen and pick exactly the song that will resonate with the listener at a particular time under a specific circumstance.
That’s not to say we should go back to the days of playing whatever you want whenever you want, but announcers should have the freedom to make a judgement call without having to worry about the PD or MD storming into the studio and demanding to know why they didn’t adhere to the playlist. In today’s ever-expanding, multi-platform media universe, radio should be playing to its strengths, and instinct honed over years of experience is a valuable but sadly overlooked resource.
Ted, at the good ones, there is more to it than that – a combination of data but local market knowledge and jocks who matter. You are right that a great curator – that is, a tuned-in local personality is a difference maker. I believe we’re going through an interesting transition as stations are coming to realize that their competition transcends the other station in town, and that ratings aren’t the only metrics that matter. But it is a process. Thanks for commenting.
Fred, this was a great peek at the format through a young guy’s eyes. In particular a guy who really wasn’t out to prove anything either way. I love the realization that the format has regional differences…coming from a political blog. Very interesting.
As far as appeal goes, you and I know the music’s appeal seemingly has no age bounds. I have guys(and young women) showing up at our events and listening to our station who are in their teens and 20s. How great that is!
We chose to purposely hire people who get the music and not necessarily bring in, if you will, the usual suspects from the Chicago market. What we found is that many younger and entry level jocks are coming into the format on purpose and are sharing the revelation of the music with their age peers.
It’s been fun for me to share the love since I obviously know the music and grew up with it.
Thanks for sharing the 538 story!
Jack
Jack, thanks for the kind note. I was especially intrigued by Walter’s POV, especially after I realized that he is young and he’s working with perhaps the top analytics team in the U.S.
As you point out, one of the lessons that I’ve learned as a student of Classic Rock for nearly three decades now is that there is no one way to do this. Heritage jocks playing ’60s and ’70s traditional Classic Rock was my original vision. But over the years, I’ve learned there are many ways to approach the format. Depending on the market, the competition, and other variables, there are many ways to produce an entertaining station that call itself Classic Rock (or Hits, etc.).
Appreciate the comment.