Radio and records veterans are only too aware of the basic trajectory of new music discovery. For eons, the labels have first identified artists who recorded albums and singles. The very best songs were then released and delivered to radio stations in the appropriate format. And then their promotional machines took over. Concerts, station visits, and other marketing activity ensued.
And that is primarily how hits were made. Some songs – especially by established artists – were added on their day of release. Others required both the ears and courage of a program or music director, willing to go out on a limb to support a new song or an up-and-coming band.
First, it was surveying record stores and tracking requests to determine if a new song had a chance to crack through. Later, it was callout research that helped determine whether radio was on the right track – figuratively and literally.
But in recent years, the old model has developed stress cracks. Labels have less faith in radio. And most stations are no longer as adventuresome as they once were, especially at a time when the larger markets are reliant on meters to determine how many are listening.
And so, the labels have become more reliant on other methods of discovery – streaming services like Spotify, Apple Music, and Pandora, the channels that play new music on SiriusXM, songs featured in TikTok videos, and Shazam hits on new music consumers have the urge to identify.
You’d think that with all these new music exposure elements, the music industry would have infinitely more reliable ways of making one of their projects successful. But there is much evidence to the contrary, suggesting the further they move away from radio, their marketing methods become less reliable.
Case in point: A story in Heavy Consequence by Jon Hadusek uses the “pure album sales” metric – physical + digital sales – to make the point that rock is indeed not dead yet. Aside from K-Pop phenoms BTS (at the top of the chart), the rest of the big-sellers are Rock acts:
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- BTS
- Beatles
- Metallica
- Queen
- Fleetwood Mac
- Pink Floyd
- AC/DC
- Nirvana
- Foo Fighters
- Led Zeppelin
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As I stared at this august list of bands that can sell albums, most are in the Classic Rock department. And Hadusek reaches the same conclusion:
“(After BTS), the rest of the list is dominated by classic rock and metal bands that remain as visible and vital as ever.”
While this makes a statement about the timeless quality and resonance of music that is 30, 40, and even 50 years of age, it also says something about the ability of newer acts to break out and become the new stars of 2021.
More proof of a different kind comes from Music Business Worldwide and a story by Tim Ingham with this blaring headline:
“Over 66% of all music listening in the U.S. is now of catalog records, rather than new releases”
The previous story gives the hierarchy of albums, mostly by groups that have been around for decades. And now we learn that digital streaming – the modern way to listen to music – is dominated by catalog – i.e., older music.
Ingham reports new MRC Data shows that in the first half of this year, two-thirds (66.4%) of total consumption was, in fact, catalog (defined as having been released over 18 months after a listener presses “play”).
The trendline on this data shows a pattern. In the first six months of 2020, 63.9% of consumed music was catalog. The year before – in the pre-COVD 2019 – it was 60.8%.
Conversely, of course, consumption of new music is headed in the opposite direction.
And with a little voodoo math, Ingham extrapolates this trend out to 2030. If it holds, catalog music will reach 76% of listenership, compared to new music at a very puny 24% for that year in the not-so-distant future.
To veterans of radio and records, this trend seems downright counter-intuitive – except that it’s happening right before our very ears.
As the record companies devote less energy and resources on radio exposure of new music, the less current bands and their songs seem to be having impact – not just on our sales, but in our culture.
So, what is radio’s role in new music discovery in 2021 – and what should it be?
To determine how core radio listeners see it, let’s look at this year’s Techsurvey (conducted in January/February), and why core listeners still enjoy broadcast radio. We give our respondents a long list of potential attributes, and it includes “discover new music/new artists.”
This year, nearly one in four (25%) told us new music discovery is a main driver for broadcast radio listening. But the startling finding is the eight year trend:
The chart is dramatic, reinforcing the larger trend that new music appears to be having less and less impact on our culture, and it is certainly a less impactful reason for listening to radio.
But why is that?
As consumers’ listening time is fragmented across a seemingly infinite number of audio sources, there is less collective airplay of new songs and emerging artists. Radio programmers know that frequency of a song’s exposure is a key ingredient to reach mass numbers of consumers. And the more outlets that play a song, the greater the likelihood it will become a hit.
As the Classic Rock guy, it pains me to see an opportunity for broadcast radio go untapped. But that is, in fact, the case with new music exposure on
U.S. radio airwaves.
At the time Classic Rock exploded on the air and in the ratings back in the early-mid ’80s, music exposure on FM radio and MTV had been dominated by new stuff: “Hot Hits,” music videos, Michael Jackson and “Flashdance.” And that is a big part of what opened the door to a format that was 100% catalog.
And so you have to wonder if a mirror image exists with radio in America in 2021. Yes, there are stations playing new music from many different format genres, but the industry’s aversion to teen consumers is so rigid, it’s hard to imagine anything especially new or innovative breaking out in a major market geared to young people.
What if there was a station that only played new music – across genres – that was all about music discovery?
Could it move the needle on selling new music rather than catalog?
Could it recharge the types of music consumers stream and listen to over the air?
Could it get ratings? And could salespeople actually sell them?
Could it influence foreign broadcasters to actually tune in American radio to see what’s going on – like they did in decades past?
Could it actually stimulate young people to listen to the radio – perhaps discovering it – in some cases – for the very first time?
Well, could it?
Jacobs Media has consistently walked the walk in the digital space, providing insights and guidance through its well-read national Techsurveys.
In 2008, jacapps was launched - a mobile apps company that has designed and built more than 1,300 apps for both the Apple and Android platforms. In 2013, the DASH Conference was created - a mashup of radio and automotive, designed to foster better understanding of the "connected car" and its impact.
Along with providing the creative and intellectual direction for the company, Fred consults many of Jacobs Media's commercial and public radio clients, in addition to media brands looking to thrive in the rapidly changing tech environment.
Fred was inducted into the Radio Hall of Fame in 2018.
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All articles about MUSIC DISCOVERY carry. the tone that MUSIC DISCOVERY is a good thing. A necessary thing. An urgent process that will improve the quality of life. Always ignored is that much music is just bad, discovering it is time waster or worse!
Most MUSIC DISCOVERY does NOT!! happen as the result of radio listening. It happens when one trusted friend takes another trusted friend to the new group or song. Both parties have to be trusted. One person has to be trusted for their taste. The other for the comfort that they will not laugh at the new music. BTW, listen to the group SITTING ON STACEY. Alt surf music! Trust me and don’t laugh.
I will most definitely check Sitting On Stacey. After all, the recommendation comes from a trusted friend. 🙂
Although Walter Sabo is indeed a ‘trusted friend’ I would never, ever take a musical recommendation from him. He once admitted to me that he had the musical taste of a 15 year old teenage girl. (I kid you not, this was during his “Hanson” phase.)
Notice that Hanson did not make that top 10 list of most albums sold.
so cruel
Public radio has become the most viable new music discovery space in the last few years. What used to be commercial AOR is now Adult Album Alternative, and there few commercial outlets. Unfortunately, not all markets have a Triple-A format station, public or commercial. For those markets, stations like WXPN (for which there is a Jacapp), KCRW and WYTX fill the void. Adventurous listeners rely more on their connected cars to pull in these stations on the dashboard. As cell networks improve, the need for FM and satellite will diminish.
Jack, thanks for this. I neglected to mention all those public radio Triple As doing the heavy lifting. Thanks for the important reminder.
I was just about the chime in with the same point. Yes, Fred, it could and it does. Some non-commercial Triple A stations who focus on music discovery are seeing very good audience trends right now, KEXP being an example….not all, but there ‘s a cohort who are (and have been for decades) stepping in to fill that music discovery void. I’m afraid this approach is not generally seen as commercially viable by the broader ecosystem, all the more reason to value the noncommercial sector.
I think you’ve got a million dollar idea there, Fred!
A station that only plays NEW music, all genres.
Kinda like WABC in the 60s!
So the next question is…
how long before a Track becomes “not new”?
Not long. As you know, JC, it’s been a while since I added a record, but under 9 months for the biggest hits & less than 6 months for everything else feels right. But once you attract and audience & do some research, these things become clearer. Thanks for engaging on this.
As always, thoughtful stuff.
Fred, your premise is super interesting. Being the music obsessive nerd fan that I am, and someone who grew up on “classic” rock, and someone who yearns for the new, new, new (of many genres), I totally get where you are coming from.
My reaction as a programmer/broadcaster below:
1 – They don’t call it classic rock for nothing.
Now, to your questions.
“What if there was a station that only played new music – across genres – that was all about music discovery?” – Interesting idea….
“Could it move the needle on selling new music rather than catalog? ” Probably not. One station alone ain’t going to move the needle. Scale. Scale. Scale. You’d need an uber multi-platform strategy and some incredible talent to pull it off. it’s not just the music, it’s what happens between the jams.
“Could it recharge the types of music consumers stream and listen to over the air?” I think for a small group of music fans it will. But for the “average” fan whose preference for new music discovery isn’t as high up on that Techsurvey chart, it wouldn’t recharge much for many.
“Could it get ratings. And could salespeople actually sell them?”
Let’s reframe the first part of that question: “Could it get ratings that owners and shareholders and boards would be happy with?” Um….
“Could it influence foreign broadcasters to actually tune in American radio to see what’s going on – like they did in decades past?” The likelihood of that is possible.
Could it actually stimulate young people to listen to the radio – perhaps discovering it – in some cases – for the very first time? My crystal ball on this says, “probably not as much as we might hope.”
Your point about how the 80s and the MTV era opened the door to timeless catalogue is an important point. Since hit songs anchor many stations, my more important question for radio programmers is: what “new” songs that are being played now are going to become the catalogue of the future. What is a new “hit” song these days? How do you measure it? Is there industry wide consensus on what a “hit” is. Where “hit songs” have traditionally been cross-cuming market tools for stations to gain listeners in the same market, what are those new “hit songs” now? Is a “number one streaming song” on the DSPs a “hit” in the same way we’ve come to define the long standing pop culture impact that classic rock and classic hip-hop and classic alt has become? Only my twenty something kids will be able to answer that question. My bet? They’ll still be listening to Led Zep and The Boss in 20/30 years along with whatever new music they’re discovering then.
But hey, if someone wants to give me a stick in a major market and 10-20 million dollars to play with to build a “hit” all new music station, my contact info is below. (insert smiley face emoji here)
Wow, someone actually answered my questions – and a really smart programmer to boot.
Bruce, thanks for taking a stab on this.
I especially think about your “catalog of the future question” – every time I get a music test back for an Active Rock station.
And someone SHOULD you give a stick and some cash to give this a run. It would be a lot more impactful than a Classic Rock That Really Rocks station. Appreciate it, Bruce.
Change BTS to BTO and that list of artists above looks just like an hour of music on the station I program…
Perfect!
Some context. A likely contributor, maybe the main driver of the decrease new music listening in 2020 vs 2019 is that there was comparatively very little new music released in 2020. Artists couldn’t tour to support new albums and EPs so many resorted to releasing covers to stay relevant, but not burn a good new collection of songs that they couldn’t monetize.
A radio station that plays new music from all genres, hmmm, they used to call that CHR, but my question is does it really matter and should that be radio’s concern at this point? It’s much harder to get a large market station to take a chance on a song, so it takes more work with less reward. So, it’s a longer run for a shorter slide. PURs have dropped like a rock, maybe that would be a more productive focus than new music right now.
For sure, radio should give a new music discovery station a shot, along with some other things. My guess is that they won’t, but given that well over half the songs streamed aren’t current, radio may have more pressing things to address than new music discovery
You are correct that 2020 was a year filled with much less new activity than usual. But this phenomenon has been going on for years. It continued during COVID.
I’m known as a AAA programmer, although I’ve been doing Classic Hits for the last 2 years.
When I was last doing AAA and bands like 21 Pilots and Imagine Dragons became the biggest new Rock artists, I found it harder and harder to get the New music and the Library to sound cohesive.
We didn’t have research, so I scoured streaming data. As you note, the Library has been more popular with listeners for years, and is becoming even more popular.
I think the pandemic made musical “comfort food” even more in demand than before. While there are AAA acts I love and miss playing, the Classic Hits where I now program is trending very very well. And there’s a bonus; I can get the job done in 40 hours a week instead of 60 because I no longer need to liaison with labels or promoters. So overall, the change has been positive for me.
As to whether and all-new station could be sold, I am dubious. The average age of the sales staff at both of the stations I mention is 60. I’m 65. I don’t think Sales relates to 21 Pilots any more than I did.
Zeb, thanks for running down your journey from AAA to Classic Hits. It certainly requires more nuance – and time – to program the former. And your comment about sale and their abilities is well taken. I have found the more format nuance, the less effective the sellers usually are.
Great read, again, Fred.
Just my thoughts.
I believe this all started when R&R decided to pull the “breakers” of artists from their list, you know, the small markets. Then, it left it up to mid and large markets to “break” a record. That simply won’t happen, if we’re being honest with each other.
Then, shortly after R&R dismissed the breakers, consolidation hit. It was a great opportunity for consultants to get their foot in the door as a “Group PD”. (After all, if the small market PD’s knew what they were doing, they’d still break records. I’m not bashing consultants. Overall, mine is the bomb. However, only being on air in a large market, he has been a handicap to our market in a lot of ways. It’s not his fault. He’s just doing what he knows to be right in HIS experience. That is, NOTHING to break, because we only play the familiar. And we’re going to play it twice as much as you feel the tolerance is in your market. Even though the competition isn’t nearly as fierce for a quarter hour share in a market with fewer stations, and our listeners have been trained in different ways for different things.”)
Back in the day, when there was “good music” it was because WE led the way. I don’t even know how many albums I was sent by record companies, asked to listen, then suggest the releases. Now, the record company drops the entire album at once to EVERYONE and goes by downloads to decide radio releases. Then, on say a CHR, you’re forced to play 5 Ariana Grande songs in your A cat because the M score says that’s all people want to hear. Could it be they’re just jamming to all the groovy new tunes? I feel that’s very possible. Could it be they’re overwhelmed with all the new music and a clear winner can’t be chosen by the die hard fan that downloads the album the second it’s released because, dang it, everything Taylor Swift sings is a national treasure. I also feel THAT is possible.
And finally, I will have this on my tombstone, radio now is NOT a station sounding like the music it has chosen to highlight. We are choosing MUSIC that highlights what we want our STATION to sound like. I do a hybrid rock and a not quite Hot AC. We choose the songs that fit OUR sound now. There are enough stations in nearly every market to do that. The smart programmers are.
Being in market 250+, it slays me that large market people and record companies are baffled by what’s happening. A lot of it is by our own design.
i swear when i was programming the biggest stations in the land, i would look at BILLBOARD charts from 2 months ago and go to lunch. Never an R&R chart. R&R was for STREET TALK.
We used both. Now I started as a music director in 1988, and for Montana, it was R&R followed by billboard to research our currents. Were you doing just big markets?
Good points about smaller markets. They’re not only where new music was first aired and evaluated, they’re where almost all major market radio talent started. Kinda makes you wonder what’s going to happen when the last top rated morning personality retires.
That, too. Thanks, Bob.
Tammie, as always, your comments are well thought out and well worth our time. You break down many of the nuances – market size, the labels, the ratings, consultants, and of course, time. And that may be the rabbit hole I stepped into. The format/station I was suggesting at the end of the post may in fact be those Top 40 stations of yore. They played EVERYTHING – the Stones, 4 Seasons, Hellen Reddy, Glen Campbell, Herb Alpert & the Tijuana Brass, and the Singing Nun. Does that work today? I guess we won’t know until we try it.
“Is there an untapped opportunity here for broadcast radio?”
I most definitely think there is and I think that it comes in the form of live, overnight radio.
I’ve been trying to pitch this idea to a couple of small media companies but the response has been less than overwhelming. However, I have received some interest from Chamber of Commerce officials in those small towns and that’s because I’ve been pitching the idea of the local business community developing a partnership with the local radio station in order to advertise the small town.
I see “a station that only played new music – across genres – that was all about music discovery” as a way for a small town/city to advertise itself to the world. Especially for a small town/city that has been experiencing a long, slow decline in population.
We wouldn’t give this overnight show a generic name like “Up All Night with Matt Attack” but something along the lines of “Discover Wheeling” or “Discover Indiana”, as in Pennsylvania, and we would use a lot of our mic time to talk about our location. Local information for the locals but also stories about the location in order to get listeners from outside the area to either visit or move there.
If you’re dealing with developing artists you can count on them doing a lot of advertising for you, especially if you have some standardized artwork to help them with that advertising and you’re creative with your programming by having albums and singles of the week.
I actually did a couple of shows on this very subject matter earlier this Spring and I did it with music that would appeal to fans of Classic Rock and AAA.
https://bit.ly/RockAndRollRevitalization
Thanks, Matt. See my response to Andrew.
Here’s the inconvenient truth. There are so many great acts around at the moment, but the vast majority of them are never heard on commercial radio. Why? I’m guessing it’s a combination of conservative program directors and a reluctance to play music from indie labels.
I find that I can listen to a non-commercial ‘alternative’ station, like KEXP and BBC Radio 6 Music, and be in awe at all of the great tunes that I hear. I’m talking about songs written and sung by great musicians, not created by a committee. Many of them are quite radio-friendly, and I find myself wondering why they have never crossed over into the mainstream. Some have a retro ’70s and ’80s vibe, and could fit right into an AC/classic hits playlist; others are more contemporary, and would find a home on CHR.
I think commercial radio is doing something wrong when stations blame the current musical landscape for a dearth of great new songs. They’re out there, but stations are actively choosing to ignore them. Just my two cents.
Hear! Hear!
I couldn’t agree more Andrew.
I think you (and Matt) are probably correct. There IS plenty of great stuff to play – we just can no longer build coalitions of distribution outlets willing to play it. And that brings me back to today’s blog topic – HD Radio, and specifically, HD-2s. Would it work?
Once again, great article. I didn’t know I was going to be tuning into the Walt Sabo Show, at least commercial free. All music was new once. I remember Lee Abrams calling me at DC101 and telling me to play a live career finale LP saying it was going to be really big! I laughed and said, Peter Frampton is done, he’s finished. 10 million sold. Boy, was I wrong. But Walt is right, even though I trusted Abrams, my ego got in the way. I would suggest that it’s more a demo thing, The boomers taught their brothers and sisters and then, then their kids to like Classic Rock. What new music needs is not only RADIO being more successful, but also we need a BEATLES, or ELVIS – a total blowout new artist with original music. I have no idea why Pandora keeps playing ENYA.. but hey, I don’t have time to push those like, dislike and kill buttons. I just hope all my brothers and sisters at the record companies will know when they have another superstar in their office. That’s key. Radio will hear a hit, always have. peace.
Always great to hear from you, Dwight. And I sincerely hope there is that blowout artist. The labels would be wise to remember the next big thing won’t sound anything like the last big thing. Hopefully, they’ll know it when they hear it.
That’s a sad thought. I was very happy with the sales team at my last station. Great programming with no sales doesn’t survive.
The industry’s difficulty in attracting younger people isn’t limited to the airstaff.
No, it’s not, and the sales situation at many, many stations/clusters is holding the industry back.
I’m thinking nothing but new/unfamiliar music is going to be, as they say in the boardrooms, a pretty tough putt. Unless someone is on a MISSION to devour all the new music they can eat, I don’t see a lot of folks spending a lot of TSL. BUT, a year after launch, if the station still mixed in the most successful of their tracks from, say, the last 12 months, listeners would now have at least a core of familiarity and proven success stories to grab onto while they were fed the best of the latest stuff. (Someone at the station has to determine what IS the best and worthy of on-air exposure, though, don’t they?) Not sure where the jettison point would be to permanently remove the proven hits…2 years? 3 years? And I like your point of making it all-genre-encompassing Top 40…not the narrower formatic “sound” that became “CHR.” Singing Nun? Have you heard the Humming Monk? Kidding.
Mike, it doesn’t take long for active consumers to become familiar with a list of new songs. But you’re correct that a “recurrent” category of, say, songs from the last year might help overall comfort and familiarity. Thanks for commenting.
Yeah, 6 or 7 “we THINK you’re gonna like this” songs an hour alternated with 6 or 7 “we already KNOW you like this” songs an hour (even though those tunes are only a year old) might work for that audience.
Well, you had me at New Music Discovery. I’m afraid to say how I really feel, it’s a tough crowd. I look at it through different eyes, I look at it from the artists perspective, music distribution and label perspective. For the most part, they’re running away from radio, still a foot in the door just in case. Maybe not so much with country music, but, the creative community have figured out that the ROI just isn’t there in regards to radio. If a new artist breaks on radio it’s from a major label for sure and even they are setting a new course to gain marketshare for their artists. Why, the cost of promoting it.
It’s the land of gate keepers, ego’s, second guessing that most likely ends up a brick wall and status quo. Why, because you’re thinking like radio and you want the sure thing. Albert Einstein is widely credited with saying, “The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, but expecting different results.” This is where data science gets it wrong, ppm, whatever you want to call it but it’s a conservative stodgy model that has quite possibly run its course. This, in an industry built on the Alan Freed’s and then dominated by Album Rock ( interesting that catalog and classic rock that are doing the best come mostly from album rock) and the obsession of HIT SONG makes be cringe because it’s used like a buzzword as accepted verbage of those who know what their talking about. It’s like a club to beat down artists trying to make a break and it gets away from the premise of music and musical enjoyment. Hit song is about money, in a revenue addicted industry. Chasing content for the sole purpose of revenue generation and it’s understandable but it’s like sugar, too much will kill ya.
Let’s be honest, a hit song is a hit song because it’s basic marketing math, exposure exposure exposure. Humans like familiarity, I think we’ve figured that out. It’s that simple and if you don’t have exposure, the artist and song are not going to fly. Radio for the most part just isn’t playing in that equation which to me takes it off the list of cutting edge and it’s sad.
As much as I love what Fred has written and he’s right 100% and always uber insightful, the comments that followed were incredibly compelling, revealing.
If radio could just get out of it’s own way, or, at least entertain the idea of fresh ideas, many that built the broadcasting industry in the first place, they very well could reinvigorate the industry.
By the way, BTS in my estimation spent 142 million to be on top of that list with a whopping 12ish million profit to be the flavor of the day.
(just my thoughts)
Billy, this is an important contribution. Rarely do we hear from people like you who make music. As you know, it’s mostly programmers and pundits like me. Radio has abdicated much of its power and influence in favor of playing it safe and trying to get ratings. Period. Thanks for your important comments about radio’s “conservative, stodgy model that has quite possibly run its course. Many will agree with you.
Thank you Fred.