A bizarre story broke last week involving a number of radio’s favorite topics: PPM, streaming, and Amazon Echo. It was covered by many of the major trades, and it called into question the efficacy of metered measurement in Tampa. The AllAccess story is here.
Like the Russian and wiretapping scandals wafting their way through Washington, the Tampa January PPM story would still be in the trades if not for Nielsen stepping up and putting out the fire. Yet, there are several important aspects to this tale that combine truth and speculation. So, what’s the real truth and what part falls under the popular heading of “fake news?”
What we know:
Beasley’s WYUU stream (92.5 Maxima), a Spanish Contemporary station, popped a #1 18-34 ranking in the Tampa January PPM survey.
Previously, the station’s stream had not shown up in months.
Other Tampa broadcasters were reportedly up in arms, demanding that Nielsen disqualify the two meters in question – both young Hispanic respondents.
The speculation:
Based largely on a provocative blog post from Randy Kabrich (this is what he does), the rumble was that this Tampa area household must have received an Amazon Echo device for Christmas – a plausible explanation for hours and hours of streaming usage.
The likely truth:
The idea that “Alexa” drove this listening is right out of Randy’s imagination, but it’s a fascinating stab in the dark. It’s possible, of course, that one of these devices was involved, but it’s doubtful because only a small percentage of homes even have an Amazon Echo (or Google Home) voice command device.
The greater likelihood is that this household streamed the station on a mobile device, perhaps hooked up to Bluetooth speakers. Our Techsurveys have long shown that Hispanics are more likely to have a smartphone than a desktop computer, much less an Echo. And our most recent study confirmed that more than any other ethnic group, Hispanics are least likely to have a working radio at home.
Broadcasters who have convinced themselves that no one streams – especially this much – are deluding themselves, especially when it comes to Millennials. We are in the process of conducting one-on-one interviews for clients on both public and commercial stations. And we’re running into young respondents just like these two meter holders in Tampa. They may not have a working AM/FM radio at home (or it’s not in a convenient place). And when they find a radio station they love, they’ll listen to its stream, often for long periods of time.
Techsurvey12 revealed Hispanics are the most likely group to use streaming audio/radio on a daily basis. In fact, nearly half (49%) say they engage in streaming audio every day. So a couple of Hispanics in Tampa doing a lot of streaming is actually not a big news story.
The fact that Nielsen actually captured and credited this streaming activity is the story, and it suggests the two meter holders probably weren’t listening on headphones or earbuds. Chances are strong, the meters picked up audio emanating from speakers.
Streaming numbers in Nielsen would be considerably higher than we see in weekly and monthly reports if Nielsen had a headphone solution and if broadcasters aggressively promoted their streams. Most programmers are fearful that streaming listening won’t be properly credited, thus detracting from their broadcast ratings. Therefore, they rarely promote it. In this case, Nielsen was able to credit the streaming, and you can see the results in the January Tampa monthly.
Nielsen did not disqualify the household in question – nor should they have. As the company reported, the panelists that Kabrich wrote about “met our compliance standards.”
Randy’s point that just a meter or two can swing the rankings of an entire report is sadly accurate, a point we made here a couple weeks back in a post “celebrating” the 10th 
birthday of the PPM methodology (“PPM Turns 10 – Celebration Or Regret?”). Unfortunately, this is the ratings universe in which we’re mired. And these apparent anomalies will continue to occur, and would happen more often if headphone measurement was being accurately measured by the meters.
A few suggestions and action steps
Speculation in these situations can be dangerous. It is easy to grab onto a theory and watch it rapidly become an accepted truth.
“Fake news” happens in radio, too. Randy was only theorizing about the Amazon Echo, but it quickly became a near fact because it’s a cool story about a hot technology that many in radio were already thinking about. Later the day the story broke in the trades, I had a number of clients remark to me about the “Alexa Effect” because of that household in Tampa.
And the insinuation these two meter holders turned on the stream and perhaps walked away or left the house is scurrilous, too. There are, in fact, people who stream all day (and listen to the radio all day), while they work or when they hang around their house or apartment. Broadcasters should be gratified it has loyal listeners who continue to enjoy the companionship and entertainment value from their stations, whether it’s the terrestrial signal or the stream.
There are still too many “stream deniers” in the radio industry. Whether we like it or not, whether we promote it or not, and whether Nielsen properly credits it or not, people are streaming – Pandora, TuneIn, Spotify, YouTube, and yes, our radio stations. In this rapidly changing tech environment, radio should feel fortunate there’s a streaming solution making it possible for consumers to listener to our stations, whether they have access to a working radio or not.
Just because “no one’s making any money from streaming” doesn’t mean millions of consumers aren’t engaging in the activity. Big time.
Radio needs to do its homework – and that means audience research that measures more than format lanes, image statements, and desirable contest prizes. Studies like Alan Burns/Strategic Solutions’ recent “What Women Want” and the upcoming Edison/Triton “Infinite Dial” are available to anyone in radio who takes the time to read and absorb them. Radio, as an industry, is woefully under-researched, especially compared to the other media verticals with which it competes.
We just closed out Techsurvey13 – more than 350 stakeholder stations took part this year, generating more than 51,000 completed interviews. In just a few short weeks, we’ll have extensive data, across formats, generations, ethnicities, and geographies, that will illuminate these issues: headphone listening, Amazon Echo ownership, and heavy streaming radio usage. Stay tuned.
We should continue to keep the pressure on Nielsen to solve the headphone problem. It would most assuredly add more streaming listening to many stations’ ratings totals.
And finally (and this one won’t be popular), Nielsen should stop disseminating information about individual meter holders – who they are and where they live – because this information continues to create incendiary moments like this one, while eroding the credibility of their ratings reports. By continuing to allow broadcasters and ratings analysts into their “sausage factory,” it’s no surprise there are ugly, horrific, and illogical ratings impacts that we cannot “unsee.”
This is just another chapter in the ongoing saga of PPM. But it runs deeper than that. It is about measurement problems, and it is also about the changing ways in which audiences are accessing radio stations and audio entertainment.
We need more research and better measurement in order to understand our changing world.
And to discriminate what is, in fact, “fake news.”
Postscript: A week after this post was published, Nielsen announced it has removed the two respondents in questions from its panel, as well as the entire household, for compliance reasons. You can read the story in more detail from Radio Ink here.
Jacobs Media has consistently walked the walk in the digital space, providing insights and guidance through its well-read national Techsurveys.
In 2008, jacapps was launched - a mobile apps company that has designed and built more than 1,300 apps for both the Apple and Android platforms. In 2013, the DASH Conference was created - a mashup of radio and automotive, designed to foster better understanding of the "connected car" and its impact.
Along with providing the creative and intellectual direction for the company, Fred consults many of Jacobs Media's commercial and public radio clients, in addition to media brands looking to thrive in the rapidly changing tech environment.
Fred was inducted into the Radio Hall of Fame in 2018.
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An important read on this topic Fred. Whether or not this was “Alexa”, that didn’t have much relevance as I spoke to my team about it.
The bigg(est) picture story is (as you and Randy both accurately pointed out) is that two meters in any form can drive a station to number one in a monthly or any ratings period.
TWO METERS.
Our entire team here just recently did a “eat your dog food” project on our steams and spent the last two weeks cleaning up, creating unique and re purposed content and establishing benchmarks and contesting for our streams exclusively . It’s incredible how much better they sound after this two week “meal” and that, my friend, drives home your steaming point as well.
Regardless of the insanity this industry has chosen to live in (PPM), it is our currency and as such, we have to operate it within it..until a large company with clout finally says “enough is enough”. I hope someone has that courage. Someday.
Dave, always nice to hear from the “real world” and you are smart to look at your stream with as much care and attention as you do the tower and transmitter. Thanks for the note, and for staying ahead of the curve.
There were many aspects to last Thursday’s blog post, which can be seen by different emphasis by different trades. The headline on my blog was (and remains) “January 2017 – A Historic PPM Milestone”. The focus was a streaming station reached #1 in a Key Demographic for the first time ever.
I have no control over the way a story is covered in the Trades.
Buried below the fold on the blog was a statement that “most likely” the household received an Amazon Echo over the Holidays. Could it have been an internet connected BlueTooth Speaker? Absolutely. However if one does a deep dive into the weekly numbers of the 2 discrete demos/household members, if done through a personal device, one has to question the lack of listening hours in the typical “away from home” hours, combined with the almost always on status at home. You should be happy to know that these facts were examined before my blog was posted. One wonders how deep you looked at the Tampa PPM results? Because of this, stating that the results were from an Amazon Echo come from my imagination is the “fake news”.
Again, I noted a “most likely” or Occam’s Razor scenario based on this specific case, not a National Study. Even you note “chances are” As you cannot be sure of this contection either. Bottom line, there is a chance neither of us may be correct.
If National Polls were always to be believed, Hillary Clinton would be President today. One could only predict Trump’s victory looking at local results.
You initiated an email to me at 11:01 AM ET this morning “I hope you know I was just having fun with the story (linked your blog as well). These are fascinating moments in time, and I appreciate you jumping into the fray.”
Clearly streaming is becoming more influential in the Radio sphere and will continue to become more prominent in Radio surveys but, for a (Spanish language) stream to become #1 in a major demographic the first time it ever ‘makes the book’ is not a reflection of streaming growth but rather a reflection of inadequate Nielsen sample creating distorted weighting for a single meter that scores the kind of time-spent that many of the new streaming devices encourage. On that point, we agree.
The headline/bottom line is it appears as mentioned in the various posts that two panelists fueled a stream to the top of the heap, perhaps the most dramatic example of what is known in the business as ‘outliers’. While nobody will disagree that more sample is needed there’s no guarantee something like this would have happened anyway. There will always be outliers, folks with way above average time spent listening. Many stations have them and in some cases inflate just how well performance looks. I remember a situation years ago in a top 10 market where a husband and wife, both of whom worked from home, racked up 6+ hours of listening a day to one station and one station only. It was their favorite station, the listening/habit and connection to the station was real and legit and should have been celebrated. It drove the competition crazy and kept the station near or at the top of heap in the key 9-5 at work daypart. Unfortunately when the couple expired from the panel, the station dropped several places in rank position. Having analyzed ratings for 10 + years I fall in the camp of more transparency, not less, because in this situation wasn’t it better to know that two meters were driving the bus rather than questioning your product month after month. In the TPA incident ‘what’ would have been the impact in the market if the station in question total line reportered, meaning the stream AQH would have been combined to the OTA ratings. With share a zero sum game the station in question would likely have been double digits plus suppressing the ratings of every other market station, a much bigger impact than a stream coming out of nowhere and rising to the top for a month. I applaud Nielsen for the moves they’ve made in recent months to provide subscribers a more detailed view behind the curtain. For me, it’s better to know as much as possible about your own station as well as the competition. The data like all research is a snapshot in time, how one uses it, small sample or large, is key.to stay focused and make the right decisions.
Thanks Fred & Randy for shining a light on the currency boils and all.
Paul, great to hear from you on this story. I think you’re correct that for the month in question, a couple outliers had an outsized influence on the month.
And I know I’m in the minority when it comes to the pinpoint analysis of individual meters. Yes, I believe in transparency, but I also contend that when agencies read about how one meter had a major effect on the ratings outcome, it further erodes the credibility of radio measurement. Thanks for taking the time to weight in.
Randy, I appreciate the comment, the criticism, and the conversation. We don’t see this exactly eye-to-eye, but we agree that the system fails when a panelist or two have undue influence on the outcome of the ratings.
I don’t have access to the PPM numbers. But your conjecture about Alexa – and again, a plausible one – was treated as fact by some radio trades. And as mentioned, I heard from several people even today who believed it was absolutely an Echo that captured this streaming.
We’re living in interesting radio times. I always enjoy our exchanges.
Fred, How would you respond to the notion that streaming services do not need ratings services to measure their listening sessions? There is actual data that tells you how many sessions took place. I would also submit that while there is some the amount of “ambient”streaming listenership that is missed by meters it is a pretty low number compared to broadcast. If you objectively evaluate a broadcast station’s estimated cume vs their streaming uniques it is never even close. I don’t see any of the myriad pure play streaming services experiencing this type of explosive growth. Why would it happen to this station in Tampa? The answer is that it didn’t happen. This won’t pass the “red face test” with buyers and any rookie seller could easily position this as nonsense. The real story is Neilson has a huge accuracy and credibility issue…and incidents like this one don’t help.
Bob, my point is that there’s more streaming than many think, and it would be higher if broadcasters aggressively promoted it. That said, I believe the panelists in question were indeed streaming Maxima all day long. The lack of reliable meter panels amplifies certain respondents, which was obviously the case here. Thanks for the comment.
Bob – one additional piece of information regarding using panelists/ratings services to measure streaming radio. Unless the stream provider requires users to sign in, and the provider does a good job keeping that information up to date over the months and years, you do need a panel to be able to report the demo, geography, and other socioeconomic information about the listener.
Fred – you are likely correct that the listening to the stream was happening. Keep in mind that the meter has a motion sensor and in order for the listening to count on a given day, it must be “carried” at least 8 hours. If the meter is not in motion for at least 8 hours then those numbers will not be included in the ratings.
Marc, thanks for this. And in the period between your comment and this response, Nielsen has removed both Tampa panelists. Thanks for commenting.
Nielsen actually removed the entire household which was 4 panelists.
Thanks for the update, Marc.
Streaming Deniers just aren’t paying attention – or there’s something amiss with their stream. The Amazon AWS glitch last week just shoved the facts right at us again….stream goes down, emails and phone calls start. In talking with a lot of these folks, it’s impressive (and a little scary) how many have some sort of streaming device hooked to the “big speakers”.
Tom, your point of view is valuable – interfacing with your audience. There’s more streaming than many in radio want to believe.