Sometimes it’s strange the way things work. Last week, I presented Techsurvey10 several times – in two “stakeholder” webinars for participating stations, and in a different version before a packed house at the Worldwide Radio Summit in L.A.
Early Wednesday morning on my drive to the Detroit airport on my way to Los Angeles, I had NPR’s Morning Edition on during the 5am hour. And a feature called “So You Think You’re Smarter Than A CIA Agent” literally jumped out of the radio at me.
It talked about how a group of 3,000 average people are doing a better job of predicting world events than so-called select groups of government experts. The “Good Judgment Project” takes advantage of a concept that was first discovered more than 100 years ago by a British statistician named Francis Gallon: the wisdom of crowds.
Gallon attended a fair where roughly 800 people took a stab at guessing the weight of a dead ox on display. While most of the guesses were off target, when you averaged them all together, they were right on the money. The dead ox weighed 1,198. The crowd average? 1,197.
And that’s when I started thinking about my Techsurvey10 presentation, and more to the point, the oddly recruited but massive sample that we aggregate every year. As most of you know, we pull together a “coalition of the willing” – an ever-changing group of North American radio stations – and we essentially use their email databases as the foundation of our sample.
Every year, stations come and go, and the number that participates can range from around 100 to as high as 240 or so (this year was 199). But our Techsurveys have one very common trait: they are made up of a helluva lot of people, all taking the time and effort to report their media habits, their opinions, and their educated (and uneducated) guesses about what’s happening in the worlds of entertainment and technology.
There is strength in numbers.
And our Techsurvey respondents have done an amazing job over the past decade, in spite of the fact that our samples are not stratified against the population, they typically include people who are somewhat tech savvier (it is, after all, a web survey), and more “into” radio than average because they’re members of station email databases.
But think about their batting average and some of the things these mass quantities of respondents have uncovered:
- In the very first year, we were able to identify the burgeoning “cell phone only” problem, especially among younger respondents.
- They’ve been dead on the money when it comes to the growth of smartphones, then tablets, and of course, apps.
- They’ve kept us up to date with the rise of Facebook, as well as “secondary” social platforms, from Twitter to Pinterest (two years ago), to Snapchat (last year).
- Long before anyone in radio was talking about it, our “crowd wisdom” surveys were able to help us better see and understand the importance of cars to radio, as well as the trend toward “connected” vehicles.”
And this year, they’re predicting that the “smartwatch” will be a much bigger hit than Google Glass – at least out of the box.
They’re telling us that social media interaction often translates to more listening.
And they’re informing us that if we simply ask the “streamies” to register for the privilege, the vast majority will do so without a problem.
So in the coming days and weeks, you’ll read more about what our 37,063 “experts” have to say about many topics near and dear to our businesses, in both the industry trades and this blog.
And if you see something that strikes you as a bit ambitious or even unbelievable, you would be wise to rethink that reaction. Techsurvey10 provides us with an awful lot of answers and opinions about some burning questions in media – all supported by more than 37,000 “experts.”
Based on the “wisdom of crowds,” bet against them at your own risk.
P.S.
Question: What do you call someone who wears Google Glass and acts like a jerk?
Answer: A Google Glasshole.
To access a slide deck of TS10 highlights, click here.
Jacobs Media has consistently walked the walk in the digital space, providing insights and guidance through its well-read national Techsurveys.
In 2008, jacapps was launched - a mobile apps company that has designed and built more than 1,300 apps for both the Apple and Android platforms. In 2013, the DASH Conference was created - a mashup of radio and automotive, designed to foster better understanding of the "connected car" and its impact.
Along with providing the creative and intellectual direction for the company, Fred consults many of Jacobs Media's commercial and public radio clients, in addition to media brands looking to thrive in the rapidly changing tech environment.
Fred was inducted into the Radio Hall of Fame in 2018.
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and there is always the other side of the hive mind coin…
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/jaron-lanier-gadget/
Actually, this is a great article, John, and I appreciate you sending it. It is correct – that if you don’t keep the choices simple – you end up with the hive mentality. Seldom can a group of web heads make something creative and wonderful. When I look at what we’re asking people to do in TS10, it is simple, direct, and doesn’t allow for creativity. But again, this is an interesting piece that says a lot about our web culture.
i would highly recommend both of his most current books, very insightful and really shakes up a lot of assumptions about lock-in and a different view of the hive mind. “you are not a gadget” and “who owns the future.”