There’s not a week that goes by without conflicting opinions about the state of our lives. Whether it’s a type of food that is both beneficial but harmful or news about a company like Apple that suggests both record sales and impending disaster, so goes it with the state of radio.
In the same week, these two headlines showed up in my Twitter account and email box:
AM/FM Radio Is Already Over, And No One Will Miss It
Radio Seems To Be Doing Quite Well
Part of the reason for this dichotomy may be due to the fact that the top headline is about the overall state of the medium – from advertisers to fans to regular listeners. It’s from a blog called Future Buzz written by a guy named Adam Singer who also is a product manager for Google Analytics. The second headline is from Radio Ink and it’s Wells Fargo senior analyst Marcy Ryvicker’s view of radio’s second quarter financial performance.
Now Mary Beth Garber has already responded to Singer (nothing like that rapid response), but it should be obvious to most of us in radio that there are good days and there are bad days, but the true state of an industry is not measured by Arbitron monthlies, Miller Kaplan quarterlies, or random articles and blogs that spring up daily.
To be successful in any endeavor, you have to play the long game. It’s the way that operators from David Field to Jeff Bezos envision the battlefield. Because these day to day headlines, emails, and “breaking news” alerts will break your heart or falsely encourage you – if you let them.
That’s why Kidd Kraddick’s tragic passing comes at such a pivotal time. It’s also why this year’s Morning Show Boot Camp may be more relevant to this industry than usual. While Don Anthony is celebrating his 25th year of these DJ-centric gatherings, maybe his event next week in Chicago will turn a bit more introspective and look more considerately at what personalities can contribute to radio as well as to their communities. And perhaps the larger radio industry would do well to rethink its rush to scalability and reassess how these two headlines might each have some truth, but at the same time, miss the mark.
Notably, Ryvicker bypasses personalities in her analysis of Q2 results and the look ahead. She studies sports radio, FM chips in cellphones, and Pandora among other factors. But the continuing impact of DJs and personalities simply cannot be found in her spreadsheets.
And Singer’s advice to AM/FM personalities is to scram and get over to the digital landscape as soon as possible. In his words, “abandon radio now because (DJs) would benefit greatly by setting up shop online.”
But the fact is that the scores of former AM/FM icons who took Singer’s advice are mostly struggling in the blogosphere or world of podcasts, a shadow of their former fame and greatness levels. Even Howard Stern only has a fraction of his clout and yank after more than a decade on Sirius.
Sadly, it often takes a tragedy – like a thoughtless shooting, a natural disaster, or the passing of an icon like Kraddick – to make us rethink some of the givens about our lives, our careers, and the industries in which we work.
It is hard not to be amazed – even for those of us who have worked in radio for decades – at the outpouring of passion that has gushed out of every social media platform over the past several days since the news of Kidd’s passing broke. What other medium could evoke this kind of emotional reaction? Surely, not Spotify or your iPod or that Indie station in Germany that you sometimes stream.
To that end, the Dallas Morning News ran an editorial about Kraddick specifically, and the power of radio in general:
“Such is the uniqueness of radio, a medium that in the world of television, cellphones and the Internet, retains a unique intimacy. When programmed just right, a radio show allows us to develop a personal connection. And Kraddick knew how to make that formula work. He exuded personality, and listeners returned the love. Many of his fans might not have recognized him at a restaurant, but they would have jumped out of their chair if his voice wafted from the next table.”
That’s a newspaper extolling the virtues of radio. What does that say about the power of this moment and the impact of this medium?
So for those of you who are industry professionals reading this blog, Kraddick’s passing sits at the fulcrum of many questions that we should be asking ourselves in the face of the two headlines like the ones above:
To DJs: Kraddick is proof positive that one guy can make a difference in millions of people’s lives and countless communities. Kraddick was a true entertainer on many fronts, but never ducked at the chance to touch people’s lives. He recognized that as he grew in stature, his ability to help and contribute grew, too. Yet, how many DJs and shows waste their celebrity by not assisting others or failing to step up in their hometowns and leverage their fame by doing great deeds? Use the inspiration of Kidd’s accomplishments to recommit yourself to showing up, serving, and being meaningful.
To sales reps: There simply has to be more to your pitch than rankers and metrics. If you’re representing a solid brand with personality presence, you have a powerful story, if you take the time to tell it. Kraddick wasn’t the only one leading the way in community and charity involvement. The impact of radio personalities is taking place every day in communities as diverse as Atlanta, Altoona, and Anchorage. You will live and die by the book if you allow buyers, planners, and account managers to dictate your narrative – and your rates. If you want to beat Pandora, Google, and even Apple, you’re going to do it on the shoulders of your personalities.
To advertisers: You can apply all the cost-per-point metrics and other accountable data that you like, but in what other medium or entertainment outlet are you going to get the kind of pure unbridled passion that comes out of the radio? It’s easy to take this medium for granted as new digital outlets and startups beckon. But if you want to truly connect with communities and the people that live in them, where else but the radio? And you have to admit that the power of radio personalities is real – a reason why you always request mornings and pay a premium for live reads.
To owners: It is time to rededicate efforts and initiatives to coaching existing personalities and growing new ones. Deals programs, apps, Christmas music, and Facebook “likes” mean nothing without the power of great radio DJs. This has to start top-down, and while all your company’s personalities won’t make the cut, the lifeblood and longevity of your brands is the magnetism and connections made by your DJs. Some broadcasters totally get this while others feel that syndicated personalities will suffice. Kidd Kraddick was obviously a fan of network shows but let’s remember that his true impact and reputation came locally in Dallas – and his fame grew from there.
Kraddick’s legacy will be far-reaching. His staff, his charitable efforts, and his community service will go on in one form or another. But truly honoring his memory by rekindling radio’s great legacy for its personalities will have long-lasting value for the entire business. Thinking about Kidd’s comments at our “Presidents of Radio” session in Austin five years ago, that would be the way he would have wanted it. He was an uber fan of radio.
So which headline is accurate? Or better put, which radio headline would we like to read about at this time next year? Try this one:
“Radio recaptures its greatness as personalities step up and make a difference in market after market”
Jacobs Media has consistently walked the walk in the digital space, providing insights and guidance through its well-read national Techsurveys.
In 2008, jacapps was launched - a mobile apps company that has designed and built more than 1,300 apps for both the Apple and Android platforms. In 2013, the DASH Conference was created - a mashup of radio and automotive, designed to foster better understanding of the "connected car" and its impact.
Along with providing the creative and intellectual direction for the company, Fred consults many of Jacobs Media's commercial and public radio clients, in addition to media brands looking to thrive in the rapidly changing tech environment.
Fred was inducted into the Radio Hall of Fame in 2018.
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Radio’s strength has never been it’s ability to provide music or entertainment. Those are valuable ingredients, but our secret weapon as a medium has always been our connection with our listeners —the ability to touch their hearts and evoke emotion, to create a strong, human bond with them.
Obviously, many CEO’s in glass towers don’t spend much time talking about such things. Bottom lines, spot loads, and PPM tend to get most of the attention in the boardroom when in fact, those are just byproducts of creating a strong, genuine connection with listeners. That human connection is the “goose that lays the golden eggs” for radio.
If we ever lose that connection, ipods, satellite radio, and streaming jukeboxes will have an easy advantage.
Stephen, thanks for the comment and the observation. I believe that in fact many radio CEOs “get it,” but become consumed with some of the efficiencies and operational issues that you mention. And yes, competing in the bigger game against new media and gadgets comes right back down to what got radio to the dance in the first place.
Singer’s article is indicative of the problem Radio finds itself in all the time.
Someone comes along and says something bad about Radio:
“AM/FM Radio is going the way of the DoDo Bird.”
Radio replies – “Not true! Just look at all this data proving otherwise!”
Snooze.
I work in radio and even I couldn’t finish Mary Beth’s reply.
Singer’s view is a canary in the coal mine.
Shouting him down with facts and figures about the “we’re doing fine” nature of the Transmitter & Receiver business only demonstrates Radio’s love affair with the status quo – and our ignorance about where the puck is headed.
AM/FM won’t “die”.
The business of selling Ads around everyone’s favorite songs will last for a long time. Decades even.
But that is not going to grow. It’s not going get accolades. It won’t avoid the dead pool jokes. Get used to that.
Good Audio Content however – is increasingly becoming dis-entangled from the medium of AM/FM transmission.
This is the trend. And it’s not going to stop, reverse or slow down. It will increase. And audiences will continue to find this content and use it.
What audiences care about – ultimately – is content.
And it’s never been a better time for AUDIO content makers.
Would claims of AM/FM’s decline scare/annoy/anger us if we truly saw ourselves in the “audio content” business?
What would be possible if radio people stopped wasting effort defending RADIO – and fell back in love with AUDIO again?
Well, Jeff, I was hoping this post would generate some dialogue, and you didn’t let me down. Thanks for the comments – raw and on point as usual. I would add that while it is about audio content (and content period), it is radio’s ability to meld its music with personality, a local context, and warmth, humor, and emotion that is our “secret sauce.” Thanks for getting us going, and hopefully we’ll hear from more passionate people – inside and outside of radio.
Its probably neither. Radio isn’t dead or thriving, its bumping along. And Marcy Ryvicker and her ilk are part of the problem. Not because they’re focused on profits, but because they seem unable to see where those profits will originate in the near future.
Kidd Kraddick was one of the greats and IIRC he started as a night jok. Are there any of those left, or have they been right-clicked out of existence by analysts? Most big time, big market morning personalities learned the ropes in smaller markets and dayparts. Where will Kid Kraddick’s replacement come from? Is there a great personality in Des Moines, just waiting for the shot in Dallas?
There is a ton – almost too much music content available from places other than terrestrial radio. For $3 a month, you can get 200 or so XM/Sirius channels on line that are customizable and full of archived performances and specialty shows. And some of their personalities are actually quite good. Then there are the streamers – Pandora/Last FM/Slacker/AccuRadio/Soma FM and a lot of others – all free and with fewer ads than FM radio. And Spotify/Rdio/Rhapsody. It’s seemingly endless.
The result is that FM can’t compete with streaming for variety, personal niches, customization etc. Accessing them is still clunky, but my guess is that your connected car conference will reveal that within a few years, the dash will be media neutral and access easy. So AM/FM’s only sustainable advantage is the personal touch – to which analysts seem oblivious.
Personality and the spontaneity they bring are radio’s future – and the only thing that the custom streamers can’t match. And at some point the best bloggers will figure out formatting and marketing and then radio will really be over. Just sayin…
Bob, thanks for calling them the way you see them. The challenge is clear. So is the solution. Radio needs to nurture and coach what it has and grow up and coming stars. Too many have already gotten away. I will be interested to take in the vibe at Boot Camp next week. As you suggest, DASH will present a clear look at the in-car environment and what it means to radio’s future. Hope you can join us.
Thanks, Fred. Another great post.
My thought is Radio (and TV) remains focused on the demanding, difficult work at hand – making their numbers this month and this quarter. The most precious resources (e.g., attention, time, money)are not being invested in the critical areas of research and development. Broadcasters continue to be preoccupied with optimization strategies (getting better) rather than reimagining the business model and experimenting (getting different). While perhaps a good short-term approach to sustaining the enterprise such as it is, optimization is finite and not likely to preserve the enterprise going forward. It seems broadcasters have become so risk averse they are unable to appreciate, respect the path being used by others to achieve success sooner and that is to embrace their ignorance, learn to fail faster.
What complicates the problem is the dramatic disruption underway. The mediascape, the competitive dynamic, is changing at a truly amazing velocity. Pandora and Spotify are still cash users however they are aggressive in their experimentation, dedicated to finding some way(s) to save their enterprises. Our colleagues in TV face game-changing challenges too. TV broadcasters are hard at work to make their numbers while Intel, Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Netflix, the Cable industry and major players yet named are investing serious resources to reinvent TV. Facebook, with research from Nielsen on their primetime reach among 18-24 adults, is talking about selling TV-style commercials for $2.5 million a day. This evolution, revolution or whatever we choose to call it, may not be linear.
Allow me to suggest what we need to do is get into the game of competing for the future. We must face reality as it is, not as it was or as we wish it to be. Let’s take some counsel from a celebrated American creative, Chuck Close. His proffer “Inspiration is for amateurs…the rest of us just show up and get to work.”
Dave, as always, thanks for adding to the conversation. It is, as you suggest, highly difficult to fix the plane – much less reinvent it – at 35,00 feet. But that is the task at hand. Consumer consumption habits are changing rapidly, leaving traditional media scrambling to keep up and stay relevant.
It becomes clearer every day that people are “hiring” radio to be entertained, to connect, and to react emotionally, especially if a DJ can reflect the local vibe. The efficiencies are all part of that original lure of consolidation, now nearly two decades old. Consumers don’t care about economies of scale. They just want to be entertained. We should be focused on that. Thanks again for keeping us on our toes.
Fred, please allow me one more point, it’s the obvious which is hiding in plain sight. We have a serious, ongoing sales problem and an urgent need to get it fixed. The funds for audience R&D will have to be organic. No one is going to save us we have to save ourselves. One needs no better example of what’s happening in ad-supported media than what Walmart did with their some of their ad spend over the 2012 holiday season. They bought two billion (that’s billion with a b) ads on Facebook, 50 million alone on Black Friday, part of a 72 hour takeover of Facebook. We need sales to step up and provide the financial support to fuel a serious reinvention. Accordingly, my thought is an intense focus on sales must be the first step in cutting the Gordian knot and providing for our future.
No question, my friend, that the inability to monetize ratings success over the past several years – beyond a tough economy – have systematically starved content creators. Budget decreases have especially taken their toll on programming, marketing, and yes, R&D.
When I first started Jacobs Media three decades ago, I naively thought that if I helped stations achieve their rating goals, sales would simply take care of itself. It wasn’t until I brought Paul into the company that the serious programming/sales “dot connection” started.
Today, “the sales problem” is at the epicenter of this conversation, and rightfully so. Radio doesn’t have angel investors willing to lose millions today in order to create a bright financial future tomorrow.
Thanks for the additional insights, Dave.
Fred –
The headline that should make everyone very worried is from Gordon Borrell today –
Automotive advertising will be a $32.8 billion category this year, up 2%. Our forecast calls for newspapers to be down 29%, broadcast TV to be down 17% and radio down 16%.
Car dealers now are spending more on online media than they do on all other media combined.
Follow the money…its the only statistic that matters and you’ll know everything you need to about your present and future health.
BTW – to follow up on the talent discussion…no one has to agree with his politics but Glen Beck is showing everyone in broadcast what a radio personality can do. His use of multiple platforms is brilliant. What Glen is doing is a blueprint to compete in today’s media and should be studied. He is doing what all talent in radio should aspire to.
Thanks Fred for all you do!
Thanks, Mike, for continuing to add to this conversation. Regarding Borrell, we share the concerns and have interviewed a number of car dealers here locally who are changing their traditional ad habits. We will have a session devoted to dealers at DASH. http://www.dashconference.com
As for Beck, he’s worth checking out. Not usually in my rotation but I will give him a look-see.
Thanks for your kind comments.