That geology course you took back in college will come in handy today because our guest blogger, the esteemed Larry Rosin, is talking all about “bedrock” – hard, solid, and about as low as you can go.
If your only reference point to “bedrock” is that bedroom community where the Flintstones and Rubbles called home, you’ll find there’s nothing funny or cartoonish about Larry’s post. He’s as serious as a heart attack.
As a couple of guys who have spent most of our adult years poring over research, Larry’s thoughts may be born from data. But his “hot take” on broadcast radio in 2023 is honest and concerning.
There will be no yabba-dabba-do’s here, but plenty to think about. – FJ
By Larry Rosin
A number of months ago, I took a call from a prominent radio executive asking me: “When is it going to end?” The “it” he was referring to was the decline in radio listening.
I replied “What makes you think it will end?”
He said: “Well doesn’t it have to stop at some point? Won’t it hit ‘bedrock’ and flatten out at some level?”
We discussed his theory, and I will get to my reply in a minute, but what inspired this submission to Fred’s blog was the fact that I got the exact same question last week from an investment banker who tracks the big radio stocks. While he did not employ the term “bedrock” – his thesis was the same – -radio listening at some point will hit its level where perhaps all the waverers who aren’t fully committed to the medium are stripped away by competition and then the trend in radio listening will flatten when the bedrock of committed core listeners is all that’s left.
Getting the same question posed to me twice in a relatively short period of time got me starting to wonder – could there be anything to this ‘Bedrock Theory’?
Anyone who knows me knows that I am loathe to predict the future. So while I told both these people that anything is possible, the evidence at hand seems to argue that it is far likelier that radio listening levels will continue to fall rather than flatten (or, for that matter, rise).
The reason I feel this way can be found in equal measure in Nielsen’s data and Edison’s own Share of Ear data. Both show radio listening dropping, but more relevant to the “Bedrock Theory,” they show the numbers dropping differentially. Listening among young people has fallen farther and faster than the drops seen among their parents or their grandparents. As such, the ‘tilt’ in radio’s audience delivery gets ever older. Per Share of Ear, today’s teenagers give about 20% of their audio listening time to AM/FM Radio, by comparison radio’s Share of Ear 55+ currently stands at 56% of all audio listening time.
Equally compelling evidence against the “Bedrock Theory” is the fact that time spent listening to radio is falling faster than cume listening. Presumably if radio were shedding its hangers-on, the remaining core listeners would show a rise in TSL, or at least we would see flattening there.
So to buy the notion that radio will hit a level and then stop declining, you have to believe that as new people enter the potential audience they will more than replace the listening that goes away when one of today’s seniors leaves. For instance, we start our Share of Ear analysis at age 13. For “bedrock” to be achieved, you have to believe that each newly minted group of 13 year-olds starts listening as much or more than the previous year’s group. The theory that it will flatten can’t discount the reality that every year 12 year-olds turn 13 and a disproportionate number of seniors will shuffle off this mortal coil.
Of course radio listening could, in theory, flatten or even increase if, perhaps, there were new programming that excited the population and brought people “back” to radio or got them to extend their listening times. This is separate from the “Bedrock Theory,” and I’ll let Fred and his readers discuss the likelihood of this happening.
I thought of Fred’s blog as the right home for this discussion because of two themes he attacks regularly. First, for the last several years, Fred has stressed that a majority of the people who enter his company’s “Techsurvey” are “out of the demo,” that is they are age 55 and older. Those “core” listeners – the members of radio’s “bedrock” community — are vastly overrepresented by Baby Boomers and even older people.
And second, as Fred also regularly stresses, it has been decades since American radio has even tried to attract those 12 or 13 year-olds who could feed the funnel to more listening. The commercial focus on 25-54 has made “hope” the strategy for radio operators – that some kind of osmotic connection will be made with radio once someone enters the money demo.
So, what say you readers of this prodigious blog of Fred’s – is there “bedrock” down there? Discuss.
Jacobs Media has consistently walked the walk in the digital space, providing insights and guidance through its well-read national Techsurveys.
In 2008, jacapps was launched - a mobile apps company that has designed and built more than 1,300 apps for both the Apple and Android platforms. In 2013, the DASH Conference was created - a mashup of radio and automotive, designed to foster better understanding of the "connected car" and its impact.
Along with providing the creative and intellectual direction for the company, Fred consults many of Jacobs Media's commercial and public radio clients, in addition to media brands looking to thrive in the rapidly changing tech environment.
Fred was inducted into the Radio Hall of Fame in 2018.
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Larry,
Have been listening to FM Public Radio primarily since the mid 1970’s.
Oh, my…where do I start? The radio business is in a general malaise right now and it affects all demographics, not just the young. About the only place radio is strong anymore is in the car. And now, that is being threatened by auto manufacturers (and mind you they’re not done yet).
Many of the big companies are at the root cause of this – little or no money to invest in product, engineering or talent. Too much emphasis on national and syndicated programming. The insistence on poorly done voice tracking. And a feeling that there’s really no passion in it anymore. I can speak for this as I am almost 50 years in now.
Our commercial sets are generally too long because companies can’t (or won’t) maintain rate integrity. (When I started a good morning drive rate on a successful station was $275 for a :60. Now, try getting $100).
And let’s not forget the fact that the compeition has tripled in size since I got into the business in 1974. Let’s face it – if we could cut the number of total stations by 40%, we’d all be rolling in money.
Radio as a business is generally ignoring the younger generation and is satisfied at the younger end by playing whatever labels hand them, rather than go out and ASK the young people what they’d like to hear. But no, that takes research and research takes money. Many companies “say” they research and no doubt some do. Others, I believe are liars putting on a show to save face. And few companies are willing to let a group of young people “experiment” with a flanker. They’d rather take that flanker and be the #3 or #4 country station in town.
Radio is also missing at the top end as well. Sure, seniors like me would like a station that might play a Beatles song now and then. In many markets, you can only find those stations, if they exist, on AM and ususally, it’s syndicated or satellite with nothing local on it. A “station in a closet” that the cluster doesn’t care about unless it’s off the air. And even then…it might be off the air or playing an old weather forecast for days before it’s noticed. The best such station I heard was last week in Louisville…WAKY-FM, and I commented on social media about it. Largely 70’s and a touch of 80’s…and a couple of sixties songs here and there, too. I had my car radio cranked up with Neil Diamond’s “You Got To Me” as I sat in traffic on I-71 South.
Overall, radio which was once “show business”, has removed “show” from the lexicon. And that’s part of the problem.
The business knows the answers. They’re out there for all to see. Will those at the top wake up and let the on air people make “shows” again? Will they let us try to make good radio again? Will they try to allow us to serve “interest, convenience and necessity” again? And not just rely on an EAS box to do that?
Some out there still do. But the majority just don’t.
Thanks for the comments Kevin. I especially like your point about the separation of the “show” from the “business”. A greater emphasis on the “show” might slow the declines, and perhaps some true innovation could reverse them.
Blame the large corporate owners and their senior management (who lack any creativity and treat radio like any other business.) They prioritize corporate policies and micro-manage their overworked/underpaid staff to death. Good riddance to them, can’t wait to see them have to pack up their corner offices and start from scratch in new industries with nothing to stroke their egos.
There’s another issue, rarely discussed, beyond this “Bedrock Theory,” and that is the economic demographics of “radio” listeners as TSL and cume drop.
Much is made of podcasting, for example, and the recent stories of AM radio being eliminated for new vehicles. Mentioned in each of these is the audience’s availability to streaming, which takes an expensive iPhone, for example, to access the stream. My point being those that can afford the technology of an iPhone or a new car will be able to access this distribution of content. The lower economic demographics of consumers will be left with traditional AM/FM “radio.”
Many of us can remember when there was a popular rock station in the market, and other stations would aggressively sell against it by saying their audience was “undesirable.” This is now happening to the entire terrestrial radio industry.
This is SUCH important info: “Presumably if radio were shedding its hangers-on, the remaining core listeners would show a rise in TSL, or at least we would see flattening there.” News programmers know this. When the Big Story fades, Cume drops and TSL rises due to what I used to jokingly call “The Demented Core.” If that’s missing, there’s trouble. Larry is right.
This is probably the most troubling part of Larry’s comments. What this shows is while listening is dropping, radio’s content is also chasing listeners away.
Thanks Steve and Darryl. Both our data at Edison and what Nielsen reports shows that time-spent is dropping far faster than cume. So people do tune in – perhaps on short drives or whatever — but the ‘stickiness’ of the medium has declined. Yes there is competition to be sure – but radio needs to think more critically about what will make people stay with radio, and not just to think about how to maximize shares within an ever-smaller pie. — Larry
How well timed! I spoke to Sean Ross about this yesterday….wondering if he felt there was an egg timer on radio. Our radio stations are exclusively in small markets and are community focused. When there is major news or weather, our amazing team is all over it just like the industry would have programmed 30 years ago. But I wonder if the consolidators and their AI/voice tracking from afar will remove the singularly most important reason for audiences to be drawn to AM/FM. Whether it’s investing in air talent that hits well beyond a market’s batting average or making certain that our SC stations are there during hurricanes or our NY stations are on top of it during blizzards and ice storms or if Chidlrens’ Miracle Network needs more help, we do what all radio should do…serve our communities locally. Perhaps THAT is the BEDROCK
Without a doubt.
Hey Jim and David – -thanks for commenting. I am always impressed by what radio can do when it focuses its efforts — for the community or for charities as Jim stresses. The drift of so many stations and companies from a sense of ‘public service’ is as problematic as the drift away from the ‘show’ that Kevin commented about.
I don’t mean this as a rhetorical question, but how many U.S. stations are doing remotes or other events at college graduation activities?
https://gruporenascencamultimedia.com/2023/04/18/drive-in-da-mega-hits-em-direto-das-principais-festas-academicas-e-queimas-das-fitas-com-catarina-palma-luis-pinheiro-e-ana-pinheiro
I can’t help reading this thinking of my own childhood…when EVERY kid listened to the radio. We probably weren’t the main source of revenue for those stations in terms of advertising targets, but we were there. But more importantly, those advertising targets–moms, pops, older siblings, businesses–WERE there. That is, they were making money from the adults with programming that appealed cross-generationally, and so while making money, the stations were grooming the next generation of those who would enter those advertising targets. Of course, in addition to these more “family-friendly” stations that seemed to appeal to everyone, there were stations that targeted an older (by which I mean 20s and 30’s plus) audience, stations which no doubt benefited as these kids grew up and their tastes–at least for some of them–changed. I guess what I’m saying is it seems looking back that radio had its bases covered as an INDUSTRY. And everyone benefited–stations, advertisers and listeners. To steal a line from the theme song of a show that really WAS set in Bedrock, those stations were “a place right out of history.” Now if we could just get some “modern stone-aged” thinking back into the industry.
Thanks for the comments Kevin — I especially appreciate your note about the ‘show’ vs. the ‘business.’ — Larry
Listening to REWOUND RADIO this past Memorial Day Weekend reminded me of all the reasons I loved listening to radio. It was the great personalities, who were on radio stations that also had a personality all their own. You would never confuse WABC with 93 KHJ…or WLS with WCFL.
I grew up in Pittsfield, Massachusetts. My two local hometown radio stations were WBEC and WBRK (both AM at that time) and you never had to hear them say their call letters to know which station was playing. Their local personalities were as unique as the stations’ programming. So, I’m not just talking about the big dawgs here, but ALL of radio.
Each radio station when I was growing up worked hard to earn your listenership and they were rewarded by advertisers who wanted to expose their product or service to that audience.
It was SHOW business.
Today, it’s just business.
Great article Larry. Thank You for writing and sharing it.
Thank You Fred for knowing this is the discussion radio should have been having years ago.
Thanks for the comments Dick. I was a ‘campus rep’ at my high school for WLS-AM radio in the 1970s myself. I got a jacket to wear and they sent me the top 40 flyers to my house and then I distributed them to the kids at my school. WLS clearly did care about ‘kids’ listening back then…and it worked.
I’m reminded of Bryan Sargent, co-worker at WLAC-FM in Nashville back in the 80s. The station was in turmoil and schizophrenic, but we still had people tuning in every day. “People WANT the station to succeed”.
It’s said here that people still tune in daily -wanting radio to still be relevant. Of course people still listen to vinyl and cassettes, and some even collect 78s too.
Radio COULD be good again, acceptable to more people, but the “bedrock” could be far deeper than those in charge want to go. The Darryls, Kevins, Garys, Pauls, Freds, Larrys and (put your name in here if you’re a daily reader) know the issues. While people still want radio to win, will they be addressed? Or will broadcast radio end up in the niche category like vinyl, cassettes and 78s?
Insofar as radio owners aren’t implementing the well-known potential remedies to the medium’s long-term decline discussed here ad infinitum–and the vast majority of them are not–it’s hard not to conclude that they are knowingly and cynically running it into the ground for short-term gain (ie, looting). It took a critical mass to get radios into every car in the first place, not to mention every home, and that critical mass has been evaporating for years.
One is reminded of the Mike character in the Hemingway story. Asked how he went bankrupt, he said, “Gradually, then suddenly.” We’re getting uncomfortably close.
Check, mate.
And radio’s revenue picture is even worse. In inflation adjusted dollars, total radio revenue is slightly more than 1/3 of what it was in 2006 – and the often touted digital increases are more than offset by loses in terrestrial advertising. So there doesn’t seem to be a revenue floor either.
Radio needs new capital and new leadership if it has any hope of becoming more sticky. There are people reading this column who are worth more than Audacy is right now and experimenting with new approaches and formats would require money and vision that are in short supply in radio. For example, the Joe Rogan deal with Spoitfy would have been better for him with a large radio company that came with a built in promo platform, other royalty free means of distribution/monetization (on air/radio station websites) and availability on all of the streaming platforms. With all of that, he might have taken less money, but when your company is worth under $9 million, there’s no way to write a nine figure check.
I’m surprised that there isn’t more pressure on radio companies to recapitalize – there is so little equity left that there seems to be more upside than down.
The sentence never spoken: “Alexa, please play six commercials.”
Only six? Try Twelve. And a promo.
Swiftes don’t need FM to hear Taylor. She’s already on their phones. Music stations need more than music. These consultant “safe lists” are merely rotation. What makes the station habit-forming is curation, the station’s non-music hooks.
Thanks for your thoughtful writing, Larry. My take is our business model needs reinvention. We’ve fallen, and we can’t get up. Everything will be the same or worst until we change. We have a serious leadership problem. Physician, heal thyself!
Some other ad-supported enterprises offer clues—for example, the dead tree guys at The New York Times. The Times team is years into its reinvention. They are fighting for their life daily and making progress. A new portfolio of highly targeted subscription products is helping to move the needle.
In the battle for music listeners, Radio, ironically the first tribe of wireless, failed to suit up. Spotify became a market leader by inventing a new space. Their $29+ billion market cap says it all. Pandora got the early attention, but Spotify prevailed—a case of the second mouse getting the cheese.
Lessons from others abound. Enterprise rent-a-car began with 17 cars. They took on established market leaders, Hertz and Avis, becoming America’s largest rental car company. Founder Jack Taylor focused on customer service, an approach evident in its absence. Public Radio has made significant gains in listenership and revenues by unlearning dated practices and embracing technology.
We need to get back to a primary focus of delighting listeners and advertisers. Rather than managing decline, our best thinking and efforts must be obsessed with invention and satisfaction measures. There is still time to change, and we must change.
Larry, sticking with your bedrock theme: It’s an industry challenged with extracting shale oil as the crude oil dries up. But there’s energy out there.
Reading this, Larry, a comment that you made over a decade ago popped into mind: “It’s not that long ago, when there was a code of omerta in the radio industry, where if you point out a problem, you are the problem.” Had leaders invested in listening to the many people pointing to the problems it may have avoided many disastrous initiatives like HD Radio – or the attempt to get FM chips in cellphones.
That era signified the beginning of radio’s end – which has been expedited by losing the industry monicker “theater of the mind.”
Radio is now on a “Music of Your Life” spiral to irrelevance.
Larry
Your comments are spot on as always and speak to the required honesty that the business needs now more than ever.
Do you think if you graphed the cuts in the industry, the lines showing listening level declines would run roughly parallel? You tell me when the cuts stop, and investments in content, marketing, research and promotion begin, and I’ll tell you when listening levels start to rise.