“There’s lies, damn lies, and statistics.”
That’s a brilliant quote, probably because it came from one of the most perceptive, sarcastic, and wittiest observers of the human condition. Samuel Clemens aka Mark Twain is credited with first saying it.
And it has only become truer with modern times. We have the data – perhaps too much of it – to help us better understand our world – and for that matter, our industry. But if that’s the case, why do we continue to be so far off when it comes to just about everything?
Part of the reason may be that we have so much data – much of it conflicting – that we don’t always know which numbers to follow. And then there’s so-called “fake news” and the ever-present concern about the veracity of the numbers and data we’re observing.
But the other reason we so botch the research we look at is that we often ignore the data we don’t like, agree with, or runs against our strategy.
Take commercials, for example. If you give listeners the opportunity to sound off, they’ll explicitly tell you – loudly and clearly – they are the #1 impediment to listening. It’s bad enough over the air, but even more of a buzz kill online where radio’s streams are polluted with ads, as they try – and fail – to compete against streaming content that’s commercial-free or close to it. It’s a key motivation to subscribe to alternatives like SiriusXM or Spotify.
But the response from many grizzled radio broadcasters to the obvious excesses of commercial overload?
“Well, there’s nothing we can do about it. We have aggressive goals in 2023.”
“None of those streaming platforms is making money.”
“No one listens to our streams anyway.”
“Analog dollars. Digital dimes.”
The same thinking exists with radio’s demographic strength, and the fact is, the world doesn’t begin at 25 nor does it end at 54. There are many products – including categories like Medicare plans, pharma companies, motion pictures, reverse mortgages, senior living communities, travel agencies (cruises, airlines, hotels, car rentals) that cater primarily to people who (gasp!) are 60, 70, 80, and even older. That’s right – demographics radio delivers very efficiently.
We continue to see the phenomenon taking shape at CES, especially at Eureka Park where health, wellness, and fitness – especially geared toward seniors – continues to consume more and more exhibit space at the Las Vegas Convention Center and beyond. It’s a major trend at this show because seniors are living and working longer, opening up commerce opportunities.
A look at disposable income in the U.S. by generation settles all scores. In fact, at the Gen X midpoint – those born in 1972 – their age is 51 years-old. That’s right – just three years away from the dreaded “demographic cliff.”
If you believe in that sage advice from the Watergate Era, “Follow the money,” ask yourself whether your radio-centric company is, in fact, doing just that.
Our Techsurveys show the same trends, but they’re even more pronounced…and more troublesome. That’s because they vividly depict the aging process among radio’s most loyal listeners. In commercial radio, they’re the people who show up for station events and who we call “heavy deeps” in PPM surveys. In public radio, they’re the ones who donate funds when asked, year after year, pledge drive after pledge drive. In Christian radio, they reach into their wallets and purses whenever the hat is passed.
Not surprisingly, our Techsurveys show the same phenomena across all our survey platforms. While many clients wish we’d simple toss off the 55 and older crowd, the fat is they make up a disproportionally larger part of the sample, year in and year out.
Look at how age is trending among participants in our annual Public Radio Techsurveys:
It appears to have even taken a steeper step toward the mature side of the spectrum during and after the pandemic, as the average respondent is now over 64 years-old.
And here’s the rub; monetary giving in Public Radio skews older, too. While survival and relevance in the media world may demand innovative ways in which to attract younger listeners to its great content and many distribution outlets, the most generously dependable listeners are of AARP age.
Therein lies the dilemma. Broadcast radio is an aging medium struggling with attracting young people, while America’s spending power by generation leans older. So, why not lean into it?
And now post-pandemic workforce trends are favoring looking at older workers as an even more viable profit center.
We’ve talked about the instability of the U.S. (and global) workforce. Coming out of COVID, they are less likely to stay with their jobs and employers, they’re less likely to show up at the office, and ergo spend time stuck in morning and afternoon drive commutes. The youth world is up in the air – and for good reason. All the things their parents and grandparents could count on are disrupted. Instability isn’t good for business, nor is it a trigger that attracts spending and investment.
And that’s why falling back on the finances of seniors isn’t just a smart strategy. For radio – including the troubled AM band – it might just spell salvation.
But back to math, a new story by Edwin Mouriño-Ruiz in Next Avenue presents some impressive numbers. Titled “The Aging Workforce,” it makes the point that as older workers begin to outnumber younger ones, companies, governments, and individuals must adapt.
Ruiz makes the point that in the U.S. today there are “more 60 year-olds than 6 year-olds.” (That’s certainly the case in radio, too, where PPM measurement begins among first graders, not exactly a popular radio demographic.)
And it will come as no surprise to many of you that only about 15% of businesses and organizations have developed strategic plans that take this demographic tsunami into account. Count radio broadcasters in the majority – the other 85% that virtually ignores senior spenders.
No matter. Older workers spell opportunity for radio, a medium that already leans that way. If you’ve been regularly taking your Prevagen, you know this is not a
new theme for JacoBLOG nor is it a get-solvent-quick scheme.
Data and logic suggests older workers are more likely to pursue traditional at-work habits and customs, including:
- Going to the office
- Commuting by car
- Listening to audio/radio in groups
- Appreciating a company culture
Additionally, the aging workforce suggests all sorts of new wrinkles about who’s listening to the radio, where they’re listening, and on what type of devices. Sadly, the PPM Era removed listening location from the data sets that stations receive. We don’t know whether they’re at home or not. Back in the diary days, at-work listening was a prime focus of attention because radio programmers actually saw the cause and effect of strong at-work promotion.
Through the late 90’s and well into the 2000’s, Classic Rock
stations had a field day (and lots of great ratings) with the “Workforce Payroll” contest, incentivizing listeners to “get paid just for listening to WCSX at work.” Winners would go on the “clock” for $100 and would earn more each hour until they were knocked off by a new winner.
While I’m not recommending this old giveaway be dusted off in 2023, older people actually showing up at work suggests a greater likelihood of traditional, communal behavior in offices and other workplaces – like radio listening.
But what good does any of this do if the end result is higher 35-to-64 ratings with no corresponding gain from younger
listeners? If you consulted with Tom Selleck, he’d undoubtedly advise radio to go with its strengths, catering to mature listeners who are already tune in.
So, how to position a shift in radio’s marketing model? Well, that’s where radio supporters like Pierre Bouvard, the RAB, and yes, Jacobs Media could play a role. The radio industry is in need of strong support materials that paint the picture of financial opportunity, higher sales, and meaningful results by targeting a decade older. Effective lobbying efforts aimed directly at agencies would also be a necessity to change minds and hearts.
While the RAB must be positioned like the Switzerland of trade associations – not favoring one demographic over the others – money is money. And the radio broadcasting industry hoping and praying cannabis advertising will emerge as its next white knight is not a strategy.
There is already plenty of cash to be had, even if its source is rooted in inheritance, annuities, pensions, health, and Social Security.
Clearly, the radio broadcasting industry is leaving serious money on the table by failing to lean into its natural sweet spot. And consequently, other media and brands are reaping the financial benefits radio doesn’t even compete for.
The radio industry used to be quite good at chasing dollars, through its rage of ages and varieties of formats and music genres. Today, the options have dwindled as radio has geriatric-fenced in its listening audience
It would be one thing if radio companies and clusters were hitting it out of the park. But barely two months into the new year, I am already hearing adjectives like “sluggish” and “meh” to characterize the business climate in 2023.
If “necessity is the mother of invention,” attacking the problem differently should no longer be dismissed.
Admitting the radio broadcasting is aggressively chasing seniors might not be especially beneficial to the industry’s image. 
But it could be for both top and bottom lines,
Green is indeed green. Even if it has a streak of gray.
After all, it’s all about the Benjamins.
Jacobs Media has consistently walked the walk in the digital space, providing insights and guidance through its well-read national Techsurveys.
In 2008, jacapps was launched - a mobile apps company that has designed and built more than 1,300 apps for both the Apple and Android platforms. In 2013, the DASH Conference was created - a mashup of radio and automotive, designed to foster better understanding of the "connected car" and its impact.
Along with providing the creative and intellectual direction for the company, Fred consults many of Jacobs Media's commercial and public radio clients, in addition to media brands looking to thrive in the rapidly changing tech environment.
Fred was inducted into the Radio Hall of Fame in 2018.
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Excellent article. But I do have a question applying the same logic to, say, the Beatles’ songs that get played on Classic Rock stations. Tracks from “Abbey Road” seem to be the only ones that seem to come up. Do the older tracks not test well anymore, or do the stations feel an “obligation” to keep a few Beatles tracks in rotation so they choose the newest ones even though they fell off the “demographic cliff” about 15 years ago? On the other hand, looking at sales charts (for vinyl and CDs, yeah I’m still watching those), “Abbey Road” has been in the Top 50 for years now, and I know it’s not us “over the cliff, born in the fifties or sixties” people keeping it there…The point I’m trying to make is that, if done right, a station’s music can be programmed to appeal to the $$$ generation AND keep the 25 – 54 crowd tuned in.
The “conventional wisdom” at many Classic Rock stations (focused on 25-54) performance is that the Beatles are “out of demo.” But Classic Rock has defied the demographic odds since the 80’s. And Kurt, I agree with you.
Hi Fred, interesting title for this article, “Is It Time For Radio To Do The Math”?
“A look at disposable income in the U.S. by generation settles all scores. In fact, the youngest Gen Xer – born in 1980 – is 53 year-old. That’s right – just one year away from the dreaded “demographic cliff.”
When I redo your math, the person born in 1980 is 43 years old, not 53. Probably just a typo!
It’s clear I need to buy a new calculator or abacus. I’ve corrected the post. Also, Dr. Amanda Sewell caught it, too. I feel a little better than she has a Ph.d. Thanks, Larry.
For dollars to be diverted from TV there would have to be a sales call effort at the client level, high above the agency media department.
Barry, there’s no question radio has not been in the 55+ game for decades (by its own choosing). In order to be considered viable, it would have to be a coordinated effort on behalf of the industry – RAB, Katz, etc. As you suggest, ad dollars aren’t going to shift because we want them to.
Bingo to both of you, Barry and Fred.
Those of us who program “classic” formats know perfectly well that the younger demos aren’t our P1s. But there continues to be a denial by the agencies, RAB, etc. that there is real money to be made by pursuing the over-55 demos.
For whatever reason, there has been a decades-long belief that the old demographics rules still apply. And that is both the problem and the impediment to the solution.
Because, even though Barry is right, how many national clients are going to take that call instead of continuing to place their trust in the agencies?
I didn’t say it would be easy. But it is possible when you know what’s important to the client and have the courage to buck the system.
Outstanding & Timely! Green is green no matter what age group spends it. And, 45+ has tremendous taste and buying power. Local, connected personality Digital and ATSC 3.0 makes any Radio Frequency stand out and hit the dollar target. 1220watx.com Thanks, again Fred, Paul, Pierre and All Who Believe.
Appreciate the comment, Clark.
Yes, a good strategy for today. Where does that leave radio 20 years from now? There are a bunch of GenZs and Millennials that see a radio as relevant as a cassette player. Is this a stop gap until the station owners can sell those tall towers in empty fields to a company rolling out the new 9G service?
Joel, in this blog, I’ve addressed radio’s “youth problem.” It is real and it’s an existential problem. But with 55 and older, radio already has these listeners. We simply have failed to monetize them. The idea would be to put radio’s current audience to work. Thanks for the comment.
Great column Fred. I agree with Barry Drake – and will add that a medium wide outreach even at the right level will probably not bring the results radio hopes for. There are plenty of advertisers that target older demos, they just don’t use radio as part of their strategy. Radio’s best play would be to get to that top person not to pitch radio as a medium, but to solve a problem for them with a particular brand. The way to tackle this issue is one issue at a time, not a macro pitch.
I don’t agree that the RAB has to be demo agnostic when they pitch radio. Almost all companies own big clusters that reach older demos – so everyone should have a seat at the sales table if something they do connects and brings in money. Erica Farber would be the ideal person to initiate this and at some point she’s going to want to retire. This is doable, but only if its done well.
Correct you are, Bob, that when making the call at the client level there must be a value proposition not just a reach preach. Without a solution approach there will never be an appointment.
Bob, I would hope the RAB would see it this way – as good for radio.
As for the back and forth with Barry Drake, this is what happens when you let a program director join a conversation about sales. You guys know your turf, the roadblocks, and the opportunities. -)
I’ve said it before:
Let’s say agencies only got paid if the ad showed results…
The wrath of that math would soon nudge the numbers up to where the spenders are.
25-54A insistence would cease being a thing.
There is already quite a bit of that in agency comp now – the 15% of billing days are long gone.
It’s not just the ads on the stream that turn off listeners, it’s the same thing with the on air product. It’s unfair to the client as well to hear their ad back to back with their competition. Ask any good traffic director and they prided themselves on the log and avoiding that.
It’s the age old war between programming and sales.
Just my opinion but radio, itself, is not some obsolete technology. The little box I carry around that tracks everywhere I go (and what I do….) is the same tech.
Thank you for pointing that out. In fact, that “little box” wouldn’t exist without radio. And yes, some pride and, frankly, some very minor attention to detail, would separate like-business spots as well as “gasp,” same pre-recorded personality-voiced spots playing back to back, as well as (worst offender of all in my opinion), host going into a break with the first spot voiced by…himself! What are we doing to ourselves???
The problem there is over-reliance on traffic scheduling software and not reviewing the log before sending it to the automation. THAT never happened when those justifiably proud traffic directors scheduled manually.
No programmer worth their paycheck would send the log direct from the music scheduling software without even a cursory check of it first. Traffic people need to do the same thing, and if they can’t, won’t, or otherwise don’t they need to be replaced.
Alas, Jerry, “product separation” (that was the name for it) is a thing of the past in all media. Just watch TV. You can see three local car dealer spots in a row. I’m not defending it, and in fact, I agree that it’s a terrible practice. Rather than being a selling point for broadcast TV and radio (as in “we WON’T do this), broadcast is just as bad as Facebook or Google.
I am 68 years old and listen to classical and jazz music,formats that commercial stations no longer play.Hip-hop,a very popular format, is very percussion-oriented,so along with the mumbled wording, I can see why older listeners will tune elsewhere.
To a great degree, radio has conceded most people over 55, sad but true.