The conventional wisdom is that Apple Music is a frontal assault on Pandora. And many analysts saw the recent Pandora “Black Friday” 35% stock price free fall as evidence that Apple has simply eroded its audience.
But not everyone reads Apple’s intentions that way, most of all John Ellis.
Who is John Ellis? He’s a former Ford exec who now has his own consulting firm. If you know John, the words candid, blunt, and honest come to mind. At DASH last year, John’s “Ask Me Anything” session started with him grabbing the mic from me, jumping off the stage, and roaming through the audience, answering whatever questions came his way.
And that’s when he was still wearing the Ford blue oval on his lapel.
Now that he’s the CEO, Founder, and Master Chef at Ellis & Associates, there’s no telling what John will say at next week’s DASH. His session, “Fasten Your Seatbelt – Here Comes Apple & Android” – is well-named. In a no-holds barred talk about the impact these two tech behemoths may have on radio, John will bring his unvarnished views of what’s going on in Cupertino and what it means to radio.
In fact, John may very well take a stance proffered last week by Dr. Richard Windsor, author of the Radio Free Mobile blog. Earlier this week, Windsor came right out with it:
“I think Apple is going after radio more than streaming.”
As backup, Windsor offered the following bread crumbs for observers to consider:
- The recorded music industry’s value is $16 billion versus radio advertising’s $44 billion.
- While Apple’s streaming service is so-so, its DJ service, Beats 1, is a solid product.
- More Beats stations are reportedly in the pipeline.
- Apple iOS devices that are 8.4 and higher are pre-set for Beats 1, making it the streaming radio default on 400 million devices.
And Windsor also quoted a music industry exec, “Apple has parked its tanks on radio’s lawn.”
Last week at a Wall Street Journal technology conference (WSJDLive), Tim Cook had this to say about the changing nature of the automotive industry and how companies like Apple might fit in:
“We want people as they enter the car to have an iPhone experience.”
So when it comes to deciphering the real story behind Apple’s CarPlay platform and what it could mean to radio, Ellis will have a lot to talk about at DASH. While the car makers may squirm when they discuss Apple’s in-dash solution to those complicated “center stacks,” Ellis will look DASH attendees right in the eye and tell them the real deal.
That’s why we do this conference. And it’s why smart broadcasters come back to the most unique conference in radio year after year.
There’s still time to register for DASH. Info, agenda, and registration are here.
Jacobs Media has consistently walked the walk in the digital space, providing insights and guidance through its well-read national Techsurveys.
In 2008, jacapps was launched - a mobile apps company that has designed and built more than 1,300 apps for both the Apple and Android platforms. In 2013, the DASH Conference was created - a mashup of radio and automotive, designed to foster better understanding of the "connected car" and its impact.
Along with providing the creative and intellectual direction for the company, Fred consults many of Jacobs Media's commercial and public radio clients, in addition to media brands looking to thrive in the rapidly changing tech environment.
Fred was inducted into the Radio Hall of Fame in 2018.
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“The company is less set on destroying competitors, like say Spotify, as much as gaining subscribers slowly and surely as it seeks to fulfill its ambition of seeping into every corner of customers’ lives. Apple is betting that it has the means to develop a top-notch music service that appeals to millions of paying subscribers not just on their phones, but in their cars and on their TVs—anywhere anyone spends their time..”
https://www.wired.com/2015/10/apple-doesnt-need-apple-music-to-win-which-is-why-it-will/
Fascinating, is it not? Thanks for the quote, Mikel. It’s another indication that Apple is focused on the biggest opportunities out there. And radio fits that description.
It’s hard to commiserate with, or get excited about an industry that has been “asleep at the wheel” for far more than a decade, as the communication and engagement landscape shifted beneath it.
6-39yr demographics have found more relatable relationships in a world of far greater choice, and the reality of generational shift is now starting to bite.
Commercial radio could have been the lead on all this 15 or 20 or years ago when it was the truly dominant mechanism pre-internet. Like the record labels, it chose to stick with its traditional “transactional model” and compete with itself, as it stepped away from innovation, vision, and relevance for an emerging generation that now lives on the likes of Apple and Google, daily, in a different and very plural world.
We can argue “iHeart” and such, but the reality is, even there, digital channel growth is flat against the likes of Pandora and “pure-play’s” audience engagement growth curve. Apple Music’s “6.5 million subscribers and 15 million users” in just a few months is not a failure, and BEATS 1 is the lead idea on a global network that can essentially penetrate markets and cities at will with those 400 million “receivers” Apple has wherever you turn.
As that music exec noted Fred, (and they sure know, after Steve Jobs’ iTunes cleaned their house some time back) “Apple has parked its tanks on radio’s lawn” … And why wouldn’t they? Commercial radio’s revenues and the audience it shares increasingly, are there for the taking, everywhere, including the car “dash”. Add the telcos and the likes of Amazon to that onslaught, and radio has its work cut out. But not as it is. Commercial radio has to evolve dramatically. How much that comes from current radio thinking and leaders will be telling. It will more likely be a part of that generational shift as the “boomers” let go.
And “the dash” may well be the place to start.
It gets really old when driving to L.A. I hear “the phrase that pays”, “we pay your bills every Thursday and Friday” and solicits for “caller 102”… on what commercial radio deems one of it’s biggest brands, in one of the biggest radio markets in the world. Radio has to get beyond that.
Lee, thanks for the comment and the reality check. Disruption is inevitable. But the question about whether radio recognized the various threats – from streaming to satellite to the dash – is a fair one. Thanks for taking the time to add to this important conversation.
I find the language in this post even more complicated than the “center stacks”. None of this movement in the industry is going to have any significant effect on the general public, the actual consumers, until they can understand what you (us) architects, consultants and insiders are talking about. It’s like you’re speaking a private language. I’ve been in the radio business for thirty years and I had to read the bullet point “The recorded music industry’s value is $16 billion versus radio advertising’s $44 billion” three times to try to understand what that means. And I still need that explained to me. Perhaps that’s under the hood music business language that the public doesn’t need to know. As a musician, an insider and a radio “personality”, Tidal Premium is the only streaming vehicle that’s even managed to raise my eyebrows. My audiophile ears are being massaged by the incredible sound quality and the $20/month is well worth it for that and not having to listen to commercials. But every time I listen to it I realize it’s not gonna last because I am part of a very small demo that appreciates or can even tell the difference in the sound quality. I’ll enjoy it while it lasts. All of this streaming and music service technology seems to me like it’s “by the by the insiders and for the insiders”. We’re the ones who think “the phrase that pays” and soliciting caller 102 is tired. Meanwhile, the ‘short attention span’, ‘give me what I know’, ‘please just let me hit one button and go’ masses are still comfortable with that and that’s why it’s still around…which continues to keep them comfortable and makes it stick around. As slick and impressive all of the Apple and Android services are, they still require bluetooth (or AUX) connections and their controls are still one layer below the simple one-touch, familiar AM/FM controls found in EVERY new car on the planet. Are we underestimating the simpleton factor? Are you guys telling me that we’re moving away from the masses wanting something they can get functioning in 2 seconds or giving up? The biggest obstacle still in place in this game in my opinion is mobile data. I feel like anyone who gets surprised with a mysteriously high cellphone bill because they went over their data limit and has to dig to discover it was because they streamed too much music in the car that month will go right back to one-touch, familiar radio in a heartbeat. T-Mobile exempts music streaming from their data charges. It’s in the fine print. They don’t use that in their marketing to their advantage. I’m guessing that’s because the technology can’t be explained clearly in a 30 second tv commercial. Even I had to research to discover that perk before I made the switch from AT&T. That’s a start, but the rest of the process and the language are still limited to the technically savvy. For now.
These statements are based on my opinions and observations. I’m not claiming that any of this is scientifically or factually backed up. I’m just trying to add to the discussion and suggesting you guys dumb-down the language so the people outside of this boat can get on board.
Wow, this is a great comment, Bill, and one that I take seriously. We walk the line between keeping the blog leading edge versus not being so far ahead of the curve that it loses relevance. When you think about how many iPhones are out there (and that’s the key to their potential/real success with Apple Music), their streaming play isn’t just a niche concept. It’s mainstream.
Regarding Apple CarPlay and the dashboard, we realize that many people are unaware of this product. But it’s coming to pretty much every showroom you can imagine (as is Google’s Android Auto). If you have a smartphone and you use it for streaming apps, it very likely WILL play a role in how you use your new car.
That said, there is a segment of the population that doesn’t have interest in any of this stuff. They want the simple radio. And those are probably the same people with limited data plans on their Galaxy phones.
Let us know how well we’re able to walk the line moving forward. And thanks again for taking the time.
I will, Fred. Thanks. I worked on an airstaff under you guys and Bill Pugh doing Adult Alternative at WSHE in 1994-95. I learned more about my craft during that period than any other in my life. I have great respect.
Sometimes I feel like all of this technology will make the median consumer’s head spin and force them to keep resorting to traditional means, even though I am part of the old-school crowd and still manage to keep up with the changes. I guess I just need to remind myself that it IS more mainstream than I thought and also realize that much of this blog’s content is indeed under the hood and way ahead of the curve. Keep up the great work!
Now, if I can only get my 2014 HondaLink unit upgraded to the ApplePlay compatible 2016 model, I would very happy. Unfortunately rapid obsolescence is another major player in this game.
Thanks for the response, Bill. The auto companies have always been smart about keeping us in the mindset of wanting a new car. That said, the number that blows me away is that the average vehicle on the road in the U.S. is 11.5 years. A lot of those people will be in for a shock when they walk into a new car showroom.