In Detroit, we like to defend our climate by explaining that we get all four seasons.
In actuality, for me, there’s a FIFTH SEASON.
Baseball season.
And so if you see me looking a little down these next few weeks, it’s because of the delay of the Major League Baseball season, as the owners and players somehow cannot agree how to divvy up the pot. You’d think that this year of all years, there would be motivation to get this season off to the best start possible. As we enter the third year of COVID, we finally have reason to think optimistically. And yet, these two groups somehow cannot figure out how to settle their historic scores – and play BASEBALL.
So for today’s “Throwback Thursday” entry, it’s back to the playoffs of 2016, and a post about the value of truly great players – that is, the morning shows that make radio great. They may all be different, but the truth is, greatness shares many characteristics. Does my punch list describe your station’s show? And is it at least in the ballpark?
We may not hear the sound of an ump yelling “PLAY BALL,” vendors in the stands hawking their wares, or fans settling in to their seats to enjoy a couple hours away from their stressful lives for some time. So, talking baseball may be the next best thing. – FJ
September 2016
We may be starting out the pro and college football seasons, but for baseball fans, it’s looking like a September to remember. Several teams in both leagues are duking it out for a Wild Card playoff position, providing everyday drama to millions of baseball fanatics. As the pressure intensifies and the games become more critical, the idea of assessing how truly valuable players are to their teams becomes an ongoing debate among fans, pundits, and even managers and owners.
If you’re read “Moneyball,” you know that data analysis of player performance has become far more layered and granular, providing managers and owners with important insights. It started with statistician/fan Bill James and his “sabermetrics” (derived from Society for American Baseball Research) , and has become more nuanced over time.
A baseball player’s value used to be expressed with numbers equally simplistic to the ones we use in radio: home runs, runs batted in, and batting average for offensive players. And for pitchers, earned run average and the won-lost record. But observant fans know these stats frequently fall short, and are often dependent on more diverse events, ranging from luck, team performance, and other variables that simply don’t show up in the box scores.
And so my favorite baseball stat is – WAR – or Wins Above Replacement. WAR has become the all-purpose, single stat that attempts to answer the complicated question about value. A pretty good explanation of how it’s derived can be found here. WAR is a combination of many factors to evaluate the true value of a player to the team. Think about it this way: If a player was injured and had to be replaced, how much value would the team lose?
Of course, this is a parallel question to the one radio managers ask all the time about their shows, hosts, and personalities. What is the true value of talent to a station? If a personality’s contract
was not renewed or a personality or team left town or moved to a station across the street, what impact would this have?
Like the traditional baseball stats, radio managers have the ratings to evaluate talent performance – cume, quarter-hour, and share. But in many cases, a personality’s value can transcend the ratings, and have an impact on other areas of the operation. As veteran programmers and managers know only too well, simple metrics can be deceiving. There are other factors – outside marketing, competitive forces, the overall health of the station, ratings vagaries, luck – that play a role in the ratings performance process.
As a result, many stations conduct perceptual research studies to provide more granular data about the impact of their personalities. This is where you can go beyond the ratings (or box scores) to better understand the appeal of radio shows, in addition to the individual personalities who are role players in an ensemble cast. Determining awareness and preference can also uncover an appealing personality who may be laboring in an unrated daypart, a weekend slot, or a time period that simply isn’t the beneficiary of a lot of persons using radio.
Not surprisingly, media researchers often attempt to develop questions that can better evaluate programs and personalities. Perceptual studies typically include personality awareness, followed by a 1-to-5 poor-excellent scale, providing a deeper indicator of appeal. But the true contributions (or lack thereof) go well beyond surface metrics like familiarity and an “excellent” versus a “good” rating. While ratings and recognition matter, it’s the intangibles that separate the good shows from the great ones.
Personalities whose value goes far beyond the ratings aren’t just working in markets like New York, L.A., or Chicago. While you often read about Elvis Duran, Ryan Seacrest, and Matty in the Morning in the trades, dynamic, local, and powerful personalities are plying their trade in all sized markets around North America as the graphic above shows. They’re not syndicated, electing instead to serve their hometown markets.
While baseball’s WAR stat may be based on a combination of metrics, imagine rating a station’s personalities on the factors below using an excellent (4), good (3), fair (2), and poor (1) scoring system. Let’s call it EAR – or Engagement Above Replacement, and use the following eight variables as our differentiating factors:
- Coachability – How open to outside input of any kind are your personalities, hosts, and teams? Do they willingly and respectfully take advice from the programmer, consultant, or talent coach? Do they have a sense of curiosity about what’s working elsewhere in radio and in the entertainment business? Or are they resistant to criticism and new ideas?
- Sales Friendliness – These days, it’s not enough to get ratings. Personalities can make a bona fide contribution by helping the sales department, whether it’s in the form of agency appearances, impactful at client events, the ability to pull off a great live read, and even making an occasional sales call. The salespeople know the talent who truly are effective for them and the client.
- Community mindedness – A key for personalities up against everything from syndicated shows to satellite radio is the ability to truly root into the local area. Working community events, charities, and connecting with area leaders and celebrities is all part of building that all important local reputation and credibility. At its core, radio is local. Personalities who intrinsically get that are ahead of the game.
- Ambassadorial skills – The ability to connect with and serve the audience is a key variable, whether in person, on the phone, or in the social media environment.
A willingness to embrace and acknowledge the audience is the key to earning a high score here. - No drama – Personalities to an extent, and teams to a much greater degree can negatively differentiate themselves with an ongoing air of internal strife, infighting, bickering, and finger-pointing. Even when the ratings are great, a vibe of discontent, passive aggressiveness, and backbiting makes for a challenging atmosphere. And then there are the DJs and shows whose focus is clearly on the greater good, allowing them to minimize the angst.
- Current orientation – Some personalities and teams seem to gravitate to whatever the audience cares about. Focused content on buzzworthy, timely, and current events that matter to the target audience is a key to ongoing success. Some talent simply have an instinct for knowing where to go and what to talk about.
- A sense of reality – An understanding of the business of radio and how it works is an important asset for a personality. Understanding the economic realities, having an essential knowledge of ratings and what they mean, and developing a sense of what the station needs to do this quarter, next quarter, and next year can be a real plus.
- Fun factor – Some personalities are simply fun to be around. They lift up the entire operation and everyone on the staff wants to work with and support them. It’s a spirit of leadership the great shows have and they use it to everyone’s advantage.
So when you add up your EAR points, there’s a true difference between a personality with a 28 score versus one in the high teens. Yes, ratings and share are always going to be yardsticks of success. They determine many different outcomes from sales to bonuses. But like in baseball, a deeper look at the inside stats that measure a personality or team’s true value can help guide critical discussions that impact the entire organization.
There’s never been a time when radio’s personalities have meant so much to the long-term success of an operation. As baseball strives to better understand the contribution its players make to the team and the organization, radio needs to develop a better way of evaluating talent and what it means to stations and brands.
EAR local morning shows (clockwise from upper left): Preston & Steve (WMMR, Philadelphia), Holmberg’s Morning Sickness (KUPD, Phoenix), Prospector (Rock 107, Scranton), ,Chaz & A.J. (WPLR, New Haven), Rick Rumble (FM99, Norfolk). Radio From Hell (X96, Salt Lake City)
Jacobs Media has consistently walked the walk in the digital space, providing insights and guidance through its well-read national Techsurveys.
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Fred was inducted into the Radio Hall of Fame in 2018.
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Thanks, Fred. This is the kind of articles I find really valuable and love to read.
Thanks, Tito. It’s an oldie, but holds up pretty well.
Hi Fred, loved this more nuanced view of talent value! Followup question – how could the net promoter score be incorporated in perceptual studies to measure personalities? It’s always been just familiarity and the 1-5 scale in my experience. Seems like that would capture listener preferences more accurately and should replace the traditional methods. Andy
I love the idea, Andy. The recommendation factor is skin to those two guys or gals at the bar talking away. Would one recommend a morning show or personality to the other? Thanks for the inspiration, and hope you’re doing well.