In early ’08, you can clearly see the profound conflicts that are facing our business. To a great degree, we’re at a crossroads, as cost cutting and garnering ratings clash with brand building and investment.
Consider this: PPM will grow and expand in more markets this year, and programmers will be faced with the task of harnessing talk and other non-music content that leads to tune-out. There’s no question that Arbitron’s meters are far less forgiving than a listener’s memory in the diary system. Mark Ramsey spoke about this phenomenon – "Mic Flight" – last year at the NAB. You can graphically see what happens when jocks run off at the mic, especially on stations where talk is either not expected or not especially welcome. So, conventional wisdom says, shut up, play hits – in other words, bland wins.
And then there’re the economic realities, getting worse by the month. Airstaffers are being fired, PDs are being consolidated, research and marketing dollars are becoming endangered. A sign of the times, as Tom Taylor reports, is that more and more radio operators are voicetracking 7 to midnight in an effort to save money. Or they’re turning to syndicated shows at night in order to keep expenses down. And in the process, there are fewer personalities being developed for the future. The only success stories on voicetracked nights are on the bottom line, because listeners increasingly understand that when stations put very little into the product, why should they invest their time to tune in?
On the other hand, there’s the pressure to build great brands in order to compete with the growing number of options available to consumers. As Connoisseur’s Jeff Warshaw points out (also in Tom’s trade), most of radio’s problems are of the self-inflicted variety: "We did it to ourselves. People consolidated, borrowed too much, paid too much, cut training, cut innovations, and they’re also cutting rates. When a car dealer is buying advertising and he can buy wonderful stations for cheap rates? Well, that’s why the market is shrinking."
As WiMax makes it way into cars, and AM/FM Radio is forced to compete against everything else on the Internet, our brands and local identity will be our lifeblood. Of course, that’s assuming we still have viable brands, strong personalities, and a local presence left. Most broadcasters have worked their entire lives to build great radio stations, but in the past decade, many heritage call letters have eroded into mere shadows of their former selves. No longer do people define themselves by the radio station they listen to, hence the lack of bumper stickers on Camrys and Malibus.
So, what’s it going to be? Slash expenses, shut up, and save money. Or go against the tide of fear and panic, and rebuild great stations, grow and nurture personalities, build viable roots into the local community, and invest in radio’s future. No one said it was going to be easy.
Jacobs Media has consistently walked the walk in the digital space, providing insights and guidance through its well-read national Techsurveys.
In 2008, jacapps was launched - a mobile apps company that has designed and built more than 1,300 apps for both the Apple and Android platforms. In 2013, the DASH Conference was created - a mashup of radio and automotive, designed to foster better understanding of the "connected car" and its impact.
Along with providing the creative and intellectual direction for the company, Fred consults many of Jacobs Media's commercial and public radio clients, in addition to media brands looking to thrive in the rapidly changing tech environment.
Fred was inducted into the Radio Hall of Fame in 2018.
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Fred,
Great observations (as always). You’ve also, whether on purpose or not, discussed a few of the very issues that will be addressed at Conclave 2008: At the Crossroads. Like you, we will tackle many of the things we should and “can” do beyond hunkering down and slashing expenses. The multiple track Learning Conference offers a great way for those who attend to walk away with tools to help them choose the right road during a very critical time in the industry. Check out the agenda at http://www.theconclave.com and I hope you can make the scene June 26-28, 2008.
There are still people in radio, who remember how to do it. And, there are new people with some innovative ideas. Both have to merge with ownerships who are not slaves to Wall Street for all of it to work out. It can happen…if…we make it happen.
To quote you above: “You can graphically see what happens when jocks run off at the mic, especially on stations where talk is either not expected or not especially welcome. So, conventional wisdom says, shut up, play hits – in other words, bland wins.”
I disagree. If a jock “runs off at the mic” and is entertaining and engaging, THAT is the key! There are still real radio people out there who know who their audience is, are confident enough to know when and how much to engage them; be it 15 seconds or 2 minutes. If the listener is interested, then he or she will stay for as long as a gifted Air Talent wishes to engage. I don’t necessarily agree that there are set time limits that should be adhered to across the board. This is just more dumbing down by some overly paid out-of-touch consultant. That’s the problem with most Radio stations! They are on artificial life support, tubed and ventilated when the “Patient” could easily breathe and be healthy on its own!
When radio is run by radio people and not by bankers, it still seems to work. When we use research as a guide to actually find out what listeners want, and not as an excuse to lock down talent under a glass ceiling, it still seems to work. It is unfortunate for us that so many potential clients and listeners have been burned by the current industry “leaders” and their top-down thinking. This is exactly the opposite of what makes radio work. A working radio product flows from the street up, not from HQ down. History bears witness to this again and again. There’s also a fair amount of ill will out there toward the radio business due to the scorched-earth business tactics of some companies due to their insistence on 20% growth. Wall Street is insane to expect this, and radio has been insane to get into bed with these sharks.
The industry certainly has its work cut out for it. Jeff Warshaw is correct. You did it to yourselves.