Regular readers of this blog and Jacobs Media clients know our history with the "Cell Phone Only" issue. Our first Tech Poll in early ’05 brought this issue to light. Since then, Arbitron has followed up with its own studies, which have underscored this important research issue. The PPM methodology includes CPOs, and they will be included in the diary methodology starting with a market rollout in ’08.
But new research from the Pew Research Center shows the problem growing, capturing the attention of the research world. This coincides with our own Tech Poll studies, where overall CPO totals have moved from 17%-21%-23% during the three years we’ve been conducting these surveys. Of course, the problem is exacerbated among the young, where CPO totals are climbing fast.
The Pew study backs this up, and at last month’s meeting of AAPOR (American Association for Public Opinion Research), an entire series of research panels was devoted to CPO-related issues. Additionally, Pew conducted four studies in ’06 to get at this issue, and while on the one hand, they concluded that for the overall population, the differences between CPOs and "landliners" aren’t all that pronounced. But it gets very dicey on what Pew calls "certain subgroups" – namely, young adults.
Pew estimates that more than a quarter of 18-25 year-olds are now CPO and they are predicting rampant growth as time goes on.
Notably, CPO responses among the young often differ significantly from those with landlines. For example, half of 18-25s from the landline study use social networking sites (MySpace, Facebook, etc.), but when they are blended with CPOs, usage increases to 57%. Pew clearly feels that there’s a relationship between CPOs and technical sophistication – a key component for measuring radio and its "new media" competition.
And that leads to some important questions for all researchers – not just Arbitron. I’ve heard some traditional researchers knock our web polls because they only measure the segment of the population that is either online and/or a member of a station database. Point taken.
But at what point does failing to measure at least one-fourth of key population cells raise questions about the validity of perceptuals or music research? How can data be accurate and representative when it excludes this rapidly growing population base? And because these CPO consumers tend to be more tech savvy, how much is today’s traditional radio research under-representing important usage and adoption trends?
Yes, it’s more expensive to find these CPOs, and as Arbitron has pointed out in the past, it’s against the law to use automatic dialers when calling cell phone prefixes. And of course, think about getting a research call on your cell phone. The odds are it’s not a call you look forward to receiving.
To date, radio researchers have trotted out Arbitron as their rationale for not including CPOs. After all, if Arbitron hasn’t included them in their samples, why should anyone else?
But that’s no excuse anymore. And as Arbitron continues to roll out PPM in market after market, it’s a methodological issue that researchers need to seriously confront, and radio clients should be asking about.
Jacobs Media has consistently walked the walk in the digital space, providing insights and guidance through its well-read national Techsurveys.
In 2008, jacapps was launched - a mobile apps company that has designed and built more than 1,300 apps for both the Apple and Android platforms. In 2013, the DASH Conference was created - a mashup of radio and automotive, designed to foster better understanding of the "connected car" and its impact.
Along with providing the creative and intellectual direction for the company, Fred consults many of Jacobs Media's commercial and public radio clients, in addition to media brands looking to thrive in the rapidly changing tech environment.
Fred was inducted into the Radio Hall of Fame in 2018.
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