Let’s take a short trip in the Wayback Machine – back to December 2017. Paul and I were about to leave Detroit for our annual sojourn to Las Vegas and the sensory overload of CES 2018.
We were just beginning to tour radio executives around the exhibit floor, Eureka Park, and other highlights of that year’s show. And we were in the process of researching what we’d see at the show.
And in our preparation for the event, we had lunch with a wise auto exec who knows his way around the conference rooms and the factories. I asked him what would likely reach critical mass first – autonomous driving or electric vehicles. His answer?
Yes!
When we stopped laughing, we thought about his answer to what we thought was a binary question. And he was right. That year at CES, we saw plenty of evidence that both answers were correct. Many automakers and Tier 1 companies were in a drag race, wheeling out their concepts and new technologies.
But today on the cusp of 2022, it would seems that electrification has moved ahead. It certainly has gone more mainstream. While driver assist
programs have become more common, every mainstream automaker has electric models to demonstrate. And when you see Ford electrify the most popular vehicle in the world – their F-150 truck – you know corners are being rapidly turned.
The technology is here now. Even though the charging stations may not be…yet. One of the investment areas in the newly passed infrastructure bill is charging stations – to the tune of $7.5 billion. That’s a lot of money, but some analysts believe the investment should be seven times that amount.
And then there’s autonomy. This is an entirely different area, in large part because of the idea of connected cities where fleets of autonomous vehicles will be ubiquitous, seamlessly whisking us from Point A to Point B.
This idea of driverless Ubers and Lyfts where we’ll be able to open our laptops or watch “Succession” seems well off into the future.
There have been 5G snags. That technology is necessary to enable vehicles to “talk to each other” in real time, with no latency (or lags). COVID didn’t exactly help the progress of an autonomous future either. And then there are all those people who simply aren’t that excited about the prospect of their car driving itself.
Except, that is, Tesla owners. Their vehicles equipped with the futuristic Autopilot technology are captivating to many. Talk to a Tesla fan and you’re liable to get an excited “Look, ma, no hands” response when you ask about the self-driving feature.
Tesla pioneered much of these autonomous applications, now making their way into other vehicles. On the standard scale of autonomy (below), many analysts believe today’s systems are at Level 2 –
That means drivers still need to very much be in control, but the cars can drive themselves on an occasional or limited basis (Level 3).
Tesla’s Elon Musk has approached self-driving more aggressively, making this claim back in 2016:
“The basic news is that all Tesla vehicles leaving the factory have all the hardware necessary for Level 5 autonomy,”
That statement didn’t go over well with organizations like the Society of Automotive Engineers who consider Level 5 equivalent to full autonomy in all conditions.
But Musk is aggressive, even though there have been mishaps – OK, deaths – in his vehicles. 
The first known fatality was a Tesla fan boy from Florida named Joshua Brown (pictured) who lost his life behind the wheel of a Model S five years ago when the vehicle failed to recognize a tractor trailer in the road.
But Tesla, the other OEMs, Tier 1 players, and many other well-heeled engineering/tech companies are feverishly working on this technology, trying to perfect a car that will drive itself.
Are we ready for autonomous? And does anyone care?
J.D. Power has a new survey suggesting that when it comes to autonomous self-driving vehicles, “consumers don’t know what they don’t know.”
Conducted in collaboration with MIT Advance Vehicle Technology Consortium and Partners for Automaker Vehicle Education (PAVE), the study says the general public needs more education about autonomous. A majority were inaccurate when it came to distinguishing between these various levels of autonomy.
Thinking about people in my orbit – family, friends, and colleagues – most wouldn’t be able to differentiate theses degrees of autonomy. I’m not sure I would either.
Lisa Boor (pictured). senior manager of global automotive at J.D. Power, sees the study as a “Danger, Will Robinson’ moment for autonomous.
Automakers are marketing self-driving features, and yet, most consumers apparently don’t understand what they’re buying or leasing.
Interestingly, the study found interest in autonomous vehicles increased 10 percentage points from J.D. Power’s 2020 study. Now, a majority – 51% – have more interest because of information they’ve read or heard.
And wouldn’t you know it, carmakers are marketing these features – in some cases, aggressively. I saw the TV spot below for GMC’s Sierra featuring something called “Super Cruise Driver-Assistance Technology.” It’s all set to the familiar rhythmic opening of Queen’s “We Will Rock You.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5H59SFrxbJM
Fascinating, right? All these happy folks letting the technology take over the driving so they can clap and sing along to rock songs.
But that’s it? That’s what we’re supposed to with a Level 3 autonomous SUV?
I have found that even the best technology falls flat when consumers don’t really understand how they’re supposed to use it. The J.D. Power study suggests most of us would not pass their pop quiz. And singing along with your favorite playlist or station while you clap along seems like a weak “use case.” It amounts to a lot of technology supported by untold billions of dollars – and for what?
To sing Queen songs hands-free?
Perhaps not. The New York Times is running an amazing story today: “A New Tesla Safety Concern: Drivers Can Play Video Games in Moving Cars.”
Video games in Tesla’s software bundle isn’t new. More than a dozen have been available, but only playable when the car was in park. But now there are three new games – solitaire, a jet fighter game, and “a conquest strategy game” that can be played while the car is moving.
The Times reports there are YouTube videos that show you how to gain access to these games while driving. But there’s a difference between how Tesla’s technology addresses distracted driving versus other OEM’s,
In that same GMC Sierra in the TV spots’ Super Cruise system, there’s an infrared camera that
tracks the eyes of the driver. If he or she start playing “Frogger,” staring at Karaoke lyrics, or do anything else in the vehicle that takes their eyes away from the road ahead, the system has a warning or it simply shuts down, forcing the driver to retake control of the vehicle.
In Tesla’s AutoPilot system, no such system exists. Drivers can boom-boom-clap to “We Will Rock You” without receiving a warning of any kind. The Times reports there have been at least a dozen traffic deaths in their vehicles while running in Autopilot in the past five years, a situation the NHTSA say requires “guidance and regulation.”
But none of these safety concerns address the central question of what you’d do while driving a car that drives itself. We actually test drove this question in our Techsurvey back in 2017:
“The year is 2025. You’re driving in an autonomous car. The technology has almost totally eliminated traffic accidents, leaving you to do whatever you’d like while in the vehicle. Which one of the following do you think you’d do most often?”
We gave respondents a host of options, and wouldn’t you know it, a plurality of our radio fans – 30% – said they’d choose to listen to radio. Just like we’ve seen in our subsequent Techsurveys, AM/FM radio remains the dominant entertainment source for many drivers, but it has gotten diluted over the years by the onslaught of new audio technology.
You no doubt noticed 5% selected “something else.” And inquisitive researchers that we are, we asked those choosing the response to elaborate on what they would do while riding along in a car that drives itself.
That 5% amounted to more than 2,500 responses. We categorized them, and then depicted their autonomous car activities in the word cloud below. The larger the word, the more frequent the response.
Copping some z’s while motoring along is the clear winner, suggesting that many people are now driving while fatigued. And to that point, there was a story earlier that year about the propensity for Ford engineers to fall asleep while “test driving” autonomous cars. Apparently, many of our respondents sensed this outcome in their answer to this question, and started thinking about siestas, cat naps, and your basic commuter snooze.
But the #2 clear choice is having sex. And look at the next most popular response – video game play – suggesting Elon Musk may be onto something here. And there are the folks who want to simply enjoy the view.
It’s also interesting that about as many people chose knitting as those who moved right to drinking while in an autonomous car. It’s hard to be sure exactly what that means, but it would seem to suggest that leisure time priorities can be vastly different from person to person.
And then there was a handful of people who expressed fear of being in these driverless vehicles. Just below the “X” on the world cloud, you’ll see the very tiny expression: be scared.
Whatever the activity in autonomous cars of the future – or the driver-assist vehicles on sale today – local radio stations will have to continue to work hard to capture driver and passenger interest.
The idea of keeping people company in the car may soon take on a whole new meaning.
Beep, beep, beep, beep – yeah.
We are once again making the trek to CES to see the latest and greatest in technology – including electrification and autonomous driving. You can be part of our tour. Information here.
Jacobs Media has consistently walked the walk in the digital space, providing insights and guidance through its well-read national Techsurveys.
In 2008, jacapps was launched - a mobile apps company that has designed and built more than 1,300 apps for both the Apple and Android platforms. In 2013, the DASH Conference was created - a mashup of radio and automotive, designed to foster better understanding of the "connected car" and its impact.
Along with providing the creative and intellectual direction for the company, Fred consults many of Jacobs Media's commercial and public radio clients, in addition to media brands looking to thrive in the rapidly changing tech environment.
Fred was inducted into the Radio Hall of Fame in 2018.
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Whether or not you or I are alive to see it, Fred, I suspect that when truly autonomous cars (“Level 5”) have been found safe and become widely available and mostly affordable, their functional role will be as just another form of mass transit–an option along with commuter rail and buses, which are unlikely to go away as alternatives (too many people can barely afford cars now).
Thus, ask yourself this: Given that users of mass transit are free to occupy themselves in nearly any way that doesn’t interfere with other users, how many of them today are listening to radio as they ride along in a conveyance controlled by an operator at the head of the train or vehicle? Based on my decades on buses and trains in San Francisco and DC before retiring four years ago, I’d say the answer is “Hardly any.” Most of them probably don’t even know their phone has a radio chip. This should scare the bejeesus out of anyone in the radio business today or in the foreseeable future.
You point out legitimate fears I share with you, John. Broadcast radio will have much (re)thinking to do. I do believe this is quite a few years down the road. The “screens” in the dashboard are the immediate problem, and one in which more drivers will participate. Appreciate the comment.
I’m thinking along the same lines as you and John above, Fred. I don’t think self-driving vehicles–which sooner or later WILL get here–are going to be good for radio listening overall.
Cars made for such a perfect marriage partner for radio specifically because it was something you COULD do–indeed, WANTED to do, whether for music, sports, news, religious programming–WHILE you were driving…and, in fact, while you pretty much COULDN’T do anything else. Sure, for reasons none of us understand, you have to turn down the volume while looking for an address, but otherwise, the perfect match! And I don’t need to tell you morning and afternoon drive ruled because so often those commuters were alone. I imagine radio listening drops dramatically in carpools.
When more than two-thirds of even “radio fans” choose something other than “listen to AM/FM radio” when given the option to do something else while driving, that’s not a good sign.
Radio needs to work harder than ever to create programming that keeps people coming back to its product. If it doesn’t, radio itself might have good reason to “Be Scared.”
I think that’s right, Dave. Listening to the radio in the car was intentional, and also driven by lack of choice. You have to listen to something while you drive, so good thing there’s a radio a finger away. Want music or talk or sports or the weather or traffic or laughter, turn on your radio. Now, it’s still there but surrounded by a cornucopia of choices, including video, games, and who knows what else.
A lot of radio people thought an FM chip in smartphones could save radio. Given the options embedded in an iPhone or Galaxy, I’m not so sure it would have made much of a difference.
Thanks, David.