If you’ve been around the radio block a few times, what’s happening right now with the ratings in PPM markets should feel like another surreal déja vu episode. Like you’ve been in this mind-bending movie before.
Because chances are, many of you already have.
In 2007, when PPM became the new ratings currency in America’s largest markets, there was an understandable rush to get schooled in the world of meters – how they worked, how they were carried, what were the biggest days, what really happened when commercials played.
That fall, Arbitron staged one of their fly-ins at their Laurel headquarters – two days of analytics, panels, and other “hacks” to ostensibly help stations make the transition from paper diaries to meters. The attendance was massive. Programmers, consultants, researchers, and C-suite executives all showed up in abundance to learn the new ratings lay of the land, hoping to gain an advantage over other broadcasters sitting just a few feet away. I attended similar functions over the years, and I’ve never seen an event before or since where broadcasters were so laser-focused on the big screen at the front of the room. No one was on their phone, no one was scheduling music, and no one was answering email.
And the conspiracy theorists even back then were in abundance. Were meter families strapping those little bad boys to the family dog or duct taping them on ceiling fans so they didn’t actually have to wear the things? I wrote a blog post from the fly-in called “Gotcha,” because some broadcasters were hoping – OK, praying – Arbitron would stumble out of the gate. And in the early days, there were snafus and other anomalies that would point to failure with this long-anticipated new ratings methodology.
Of course, there were those who advocated cutting a deal with the big stadium in
town. For events with a capacity crowd, the theory was to play your radio station live before and after the event or game. After all, with 75,000 in attendance, there just had to be a person…or two…carrying around one of those PPM thingamajigs. Or renting trucks equipped with loudspeakers blaring a station through its “hot zips.” Radio programmers and strategists are resilient, inventive, and scrappy – all helpful elements to possess when there’s a rules change in a game that’s played pretty much every hour of every day.
Once PPM became the new measuring stick, the on-air protocols began to change quickly. Less talk, fewer (but longer stopsets), longer songs, shorter songs, no teasing, more teasing, play a music bed under the jocks, etc. Depending on who you talked with, there were different methods to game the new ratings madness.
The juiciest discussions revolved around the formats that had an obvious edge with the new ratings methodology. Smooth Jazz was the sacrificial lamb, as if music from Kenny G and George Benson was toxic. Not since the demise of disco as a format, radio companies couldn’t run away fast enough from the once-successful Smooth Jazz format.
And most of the remaining commercial radio Classical formats were shuttered as well. Thank the radio gods if you have one of these stations on your local FM band. If so, they’re likely public stations, the only broadcasters remaining that believe in these formats.
But the weird part is that most broadcasters looked at the first month (or two) of PPM “currency” and began to accept certain truths about the formats that were beneficiaries or losers in the new world of meters.
Then there was Voltair – the radio story of 2015. Unless most radio sagas, this episode began with murmurs and whispers. That’s because a certain large – but unnamed – radio company apparently had the inside track on buying “black boxes” that would magically enhance the encoding of radio signals, thus boosting the ratings of a station that installed it in its audio chain. There was much secrecy around these gizmos – in some cases, the windows protecting the rack room were covered so tours of Girl Scouts would never suspect these PPM amplifiers even existed.
And the questions exploded. Was Voltair real? Was it legal? Did Nielsen know? If you used Voltair and found out, could you your station be “deslisted” – the ultimate penalty? Were certain formats or demographics helped or hurt by this enhanced audio innovation? Suffice it to say, there was a great deal of rumors and conjecture.
And in the radio trades – nothing, nada, zip, zero. Voltair summed up the now-popular acronym: IYKYK.
One by one, every company eventually figured it out. I remember calling a number of CEO/COO clients during a wild week. Given the high level of secrecy around these devices, I began to think I was channeling “Deep Throat.” I’d get on the phone, and say, “I’m going to say one word to you that will either end this conversation or extend it for a good period of time. And I’d simply say:
“Voltair.”
If they responded with “the French writer/philosopher?” or “Who?,” we were in for an interesting discussion about why a cluster across the street was enjoying mostly “up books.”
But several fired back something along the lines of “I have 22 boxes on order,” so I knew they were in the loop.
In some stations, they wouldn’t tell me, their trusted consultant, they were using “the box.” In fact, I knew a few that purposely didn’t inform their own program directors – it was a wink-wink deal between the GM and the chief engineer.
Telos was the innovative company that discovered the Portable People Meter system could do a better job of capturing radio listening (or nearby audio). At a reported cost of $15,000 per box – and you needed one for every station you cared about – I’m sure Telos enjoyed a record-setting year.
Credit where credit’s due. Telos exposed a hole in the PPM methodology – and they exploited it, raising the question of whether Nielsen was content to simply use this system created by Arbitron “as is,” or whether they would invest in systematically improving and modernizing it. We know from all those updates we receive for our Android and iPhones the essential value of software updates, whether they fix “bugs” or whether they add improvements and enhancements to their software.
Once the Voltair secret was out, the ratings ground began to level again. When pretty much every competitive station in the market is using the same “little black box,” it’s advantage no-one. We’re back to “Go.”
That’s why this “3-minute juncture” we’re at in this still new year of 2025 is both interesting, but also cautionary. Yes, radio broadcasters need to understand what it means when the standard for quarter-hour accreditation has been reduced from five minutes down to just three.
But they also need to accept that the January monthly is like a baseball game that’s half an inning old. It’s but a small slice revealing the impact of “3 Minutes.”
It’s also true January is always a weird month coming out of the December holidays – always an anomalous time in radio thanks to the mega-impact of Christmas music in virtually every market.
Then there’s the weather, the exciting run-up to the Super Bowl, and this year, Trump 2.0, a political tsunami that has turned out to have more drama than even the most tuned-in pundits anticipated.
If this is not your first “Radio Rodeo,” you know the measured thing to do is to compare these new January PPM numbers to the same period 12 months ago.
Except you can’t because the January 2024 book utilized the old “5-Minute” methodology.
I enjoyed reading some of the early returns for our new methodological escapade like I do a great crime fiction novel. Inside Radio published their initial wrap-up earlier this week with the headline:
“Nielsen’s First Three-Minute Qualifier PPMs Bring New Stations To Markets’ Top Five”
It’s entertaining, you keep putting together new clues as they surface, and it keeps you on the edge of your seat.
But is it telling?
That is, is it identifying trends you and I should trust? In conversations I’ve had this week (and over the past month, I keep hearing the pronouncements, the generalizations, and the supposed truths that are already emerging with “3 Minutes.”
High cume stations are killing it.
Contemporary formats have an edge.
Every Classic Rock station took a beating.
Public radio is making a comeback?
As you look up and down these early returns, any and all of these “trends” are contradicted in the next market report you see.
It would be like Steve Kornacki calling elections with 5% of precincts reporting. Responsible analysts wait until there’s “more sample” – in this case, more months, before drawing any hard and fast conclusions.
And consider this: How many of the PPM strategies devised over the last 18 years of metered measurement have contributed to making broadcast radio better able to compete against all the other players on the digital audio playing field?
Have tactics like two long stopsets locked in at the same time as everyone else or shutting down the jocks helped radio fend off Spotify, Joe Rogan, and YouTube?
When broadcast radio is dictated by tactics designed to influence a ratings system no one else is judged by, is it really leading to producing a more competitive product?
And when the ratings figure less and less into the calculus of media buying and planning, does it make sense to continue being a slave to the ratings?
So, what do you do?
Learn everything you can about the new methodology and talk to people who have a multi-market POV. Nielsen isn’t likely to schedule a fly-in, but there are already webinars being planned to help broadcasters navigate these uncharted waters. Attend them.
If you’ve never heard of the “3-Card Monte” game, it’s actually a sleight-of-hand con
game designed to separate you and your money. It is scam that was once popular in big city streets, and its dependent on there being enough victims or “marks” out there.
You know better. Or you should if you’ve been playing the Nielsen or Arbitron game for a few seasons. It’s important to note Nielsen is playing it straight – there’s no “3-Minute Monte” going on designed to mislead or trick you. This methodology switch was demanded by radio broadcasters, not mandated by the ratings company.
But like the street game, if you allow yourself to be hoodwinked by the illusion of numbers that are too early and too few to make conclusions, well that’s on you.
The last thing broadcast radio needs right now is illusory ratings results that lead to product actions, format changes, and even more RIFs that degrades the sound of a station to its competitive detriment.
Who’s next?
Jacobs Media has consistently walked the walk in the digital space, providing insights and guidance through its well-read national Techsurveys.
In 2008, jacapps was launched - a mobile apps company that has designed and built more than 1,300 apps for both the Apple and Android platforms. In 2013, the DASH Conference was created - a mashup of radio and automotive, designed to foster better understanding of the "connected car" and its impact.
Along with providing the creative and intellectual direction for the company, Fred consults many of Jacobs Media's commercial and public radio clients, in addition to media brands looking to thrive in the rapidly changing tech environment.
Fred was inducted into the Radio Hall of Fame in 2018.
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Man. That was an amazing and accurate walk through ratings memory lane. I miss it “zero percent”. LOL.
Brilliant point(s) raised.
Congrats on 20 years, FJ. The industry owes you a lot.
Hey Dave, glad you enjoyed it, but I hope it doesn’t lead to flashbacks or nightmares.
Regarding my 20th, it’s been reciprocal with radio. I’m grateful. Thank you.
I’m with DP 100%!!!